Sunday Severe Risk

Pretty much an oval of slight risk right on top of our viewing area, so busy day tomorrow! The day will start out okay as far as temps go, but the winds will pick up from the South and bump up the temps as well as the humidity.This is what to expect as far as dew points go... you can definitely tell that we'll have plenty of moisture from the golf being brought up. Some dew points could be 60 degrees and up, making for a muggy day. This is what some meteorologists call a "moisture ridge" or an axis of high dew points , some also call it a 'moist tongue' which is a key ingredient for severe weather, you have to have ample moisture for storms to spark up.

This is the mean layer CAPE, or Convective Available Potential Energy, basically this is a picture of how much energy is there that can be used to fire up the storms or available for convection. It tells us where there is a lot of potential for upward motion - which is another key ingredient for severe storms. For thunderstorms to happen - we usually need over 1,000 Joules per kilogram and as you can see, a line of over 1500 J/K extends all the way up into our region. For extreme storms you can sometimes see CAPE values up to 5000 J/K. Obviously values aren't THAT high for tomorrow, so that tells us that it's not going to be a huge event with a bunch of outbreaks of severe weather, but keep your eyes on the skies in the late afternoon hours for development of these popcorn thunderstorms along the warm front that will be pushing north throughout the day.

The associated cold front pushes through late Sunday night and into Monday, so we'll see cooler and not as humid weather following that.

~KDLT Meteorologist Jesse Ritka