Hopefully you can see how this would be a problem. Taking all of the accumulated forecasts and averaging them together removes all of the outliers like the extreme highs and extreme lows which can be correct from time to time.
For example, say for instance that there is a storm system that's headed toward Sioux Falls. This imaginary forecast model that we just completed runs 12 times before averaging out its forecast. Well, more then likely, all 12 model runs will come up with a different amount of rainfall that we are going to receive. So here are the twelve numbers; 0", .01", .02", .04", .05", .08", .16", .17", .19", .22", .29", and .86". So if you average out these 12 numbers, you get .17". So this model will tell us that Sioux Falls is going to get .17" inches of rain.
Now, what I hope you are thinking now is that there is a very large difference in those numbers. The model tried to average it out to give you the best possible result. However, what if the outlying model run was correct and we get .86"? Well then this is where meteorologists often make their mistakes. That's why we give probabilities on the chance of it raining. Because if we were to see all of those numbers and see that all of the model runs thought it would rain with the exception of one, then we might give an 80% chance of rainfall.
Well, we are having the same issue with the upcoming week. Some models are saying that we are going to see quite a bit of rainfall while others are saying that we wont see anything. If you look at the individual forecasting runs that were produced by each model (called ensemble members) they all look very different. This is what one such model looks like;
Each box represents an ensemble member. All are for the same period and give total amount of rainfall. Notice that many are very different. Then when the model itself sums up the numbers to output an average forecast for the world to see, it will give you something like this;
I have shown something like this many times before. It just simply shows what the average amount of rain will fall by combining all of the ensemble members. This is where the meteorologist will come in and combine his or her knowledge to determine whether or not to trust this model and believe that its giving you an accurate forecast. So at this point, it looks like we will see some scattered showers by Sunday and Monday but we kept the probability of rain at just 30% because many of these models don't agree with each other. So stay tuned because model accuracy tends to get better as the storm gets closer so we will keep you informed with the latest!~KDLT Meteorologist Cody Matz
The middle of the day is when winds are going to peak around the 20-25 mile an hour range. We'll see some gusts up to 30, even 35 miles per hour as well. So enjoy the warm weather but hold onto your hats and ladies - maybe a little extra hair spray will be needed.
Warm fronts bring in warm, moist air behind it and are 
Can you tell I'm excited??? I love meteor showers - I remember when I was in middle and high school, I used to stay up with my girlfriends during sleepovers just to watch the meteor showers. Call us nerds, my "nerd-
Soil Temperatures at 4" deep:
Now keep in mind that this time of the year, the lower you go in the soil (to a certain point), the warmer it will get. Often times in the middle of January when air temperatures at the surface are 10 or 20 degrees below zero, you can dig 4 or 5 feet into the ground and the soil will be close to 50 degrees.
If you follow the arrows, the progression of this system is slow, but I do think that by Wednesday that low pressure will be affecting our forecast. I don't think that it will bring us the same troubles it is to Nebraska and Kansas however. By the time it reaches us, we'll see just a few light rain showers in SE SD and NE and IA. Nothing that will fill up the rain buckets, but something to keep on the radar. (No pun intended there)
