We've been talking about it for awhile now, but this is the "Day 2 Outlook" put out by the SPC (Storm Prediction Center) so there is a slight possibility for some large hail, strong and damaging winds as well as the slight chance for an isolated tornado or two. And since we really haven't touched much on severe weather just yet... I'll give you a few clues on a few things we look for when it comes to determining where the severe weather could occur.
The first parameter I'll touch on is CAPE - or Convective Available Potential Energy. Basically how much energy is there that could produce a convective (or stormy) environment. If you want to know more about CAPE, hit this link.
Alright, this one depicts Helicity - basically how wind speed and direction change with height. Values higher than 400 mean there is potential for a rotating updraft - a necessity in tornadoes. For more details on Helicity, check out this website.
As Cody Matz mentioned earlier this week, dew points and a good "moisture tongue" are important to aid in severe weather. If there isn't enough moisture in the atmosphere, there will be no chance for any storm development at all, you can refer to his post below for a bit more in depth explanation.
And another thing we check is CIN - Convective Inhibition. The more positive this value is the more stable the atmosphere is... if the atmosphere is stable... not much will happen. CIN values less than 50 are weak and favorable for severe weather while higher values point towards stable conditions. More information can be found here.So that's a quick glimpse of a few things we look at when we are thinking that severe weather may be a threat. If you hadn't noticed... these parameters are all for Sunday evening - around the time we are predicting the chance of severe weather. This isn't a "for sure severe weather day" by any means, but these parameters all point towards at least some marginal hail and damaging winds along with the potential for a tornado.
Time will tell, we'll see how things pan out.
~KDLT Meteorologist Jesse Ritka
2 comments:
So,if the sun comes out tomorrow morning are we in trouble for severe weather Sunday afternoon/night? Also, is it possible we could see tornadic activity Monday? I have to travel between Flandreau and S.F. most of Monday.
There is the potential for tornadic activity on Monday... but it will be a very isolated chance. If you have to travel, just keep in mind there is the potential for times of heavy rain as well as hail along with very windy conditions, but these will be storms very similar to ones we've seen today - off an on showers and storms. Hope you have good wiper blades!
Post a Comment
Thoughts from you guys...