Cold This Weekend

First off, I just wanted to recap my post from yesterday, "The Art of Mixing." I told you about mixing and that it can play a huge role in high temperatures. Well, it turns out that even I drastically underestimated it. We hit 38 degrees yesterday! That's really warm for this time of the year and not to mention, I only forecasted 32. So you can see why there are times when even we get it wrong.

Now, on to the forecast. As Aaron mentioned, snow is on its way again. But I wanted to focus on the cold air behind the snow for right now. Forecast models appear to be horribly underestimating the shallow dense cold air that will make its way down from Canada on Sunday. Just a couple days ago, all of the models were showing highs in the low twenties on Sunday. But, as the system gets closer, they are finally adjusting to the very shallow arctic air. Now, the model you see below is forecasting a high in Sioux Falls of about ten degrees.

This seems a bit more reasonable then low twenties. However, will have to see how much mixing we will get on Sunday because that could mix some of that dense arctic air away from the surface causing our temperatures to be a few degrees warmer.

~KDLT Meteorologist Cody Matz