More On Our Next Storm

Cody & I have been talking about this storm for a couple of days - and that's because it is interesting! At least to us...

Lots & lots of warm air is going to be pulled into this system, which will likely keep it coming as rain to start (assuming things stay the same - the same warning we give applies which is to stay tuned over the next couple of days), and then it changes over. The big question: When will rain change to snow and where?

There's a model output known as "critical thickness" values, which takes averages for when snow occurs at various different levels of the atmosphere and plots them as lines that represent rain/snow lines. Here's an example of one model for Monday - and you'll start to see the difficulty of this forecast (besides even the amount of rain or snow):

Notice how the bulk of all of these lines are scattered throughout South Dakota. This is one of the heavier times of the storm as it passes over us - and according to the placement of these lines we'll be seeing all rain... we'll see... Notice as we jump ahead toward early Tuesday (around midnight) the lines shift significantly farther toward the South and East:

That pretty much sums it up. We've likely got a changeover scheduled to take place from Monday to Monday night and early Tuesday. Look for some much colder air to pile in and that will help the changeover take place. Check out this map of upper level temperatures (that same 850mb level about 2/3 of a mile up in the sky):

Notice the little twist in the image above right on the North Dakota/South Dakota border. That little twist is the cold air being mixed in with the warmer air already in place. Compare that to the image above - at the same time in the forecast - and you see how the timing of the rain/snow changeover will be fun to forecast!

With all that being said - enjoy the great weather!

Also, I promised I would post pictures of me doing crazy stuff in California on my trip. I won't let you down - but I am sneaking them in at a point in this post where I've probably lost your attention...

Here's me selling fish on a pier in Ventura, CA:


We sold smoked ahi tuna from that little red cooler. It was probably the best food I've had in recent memory. Then I had to hold a big tuna fish as well - you can see that below:


The best view, though, was below:

Look at all of that yellowfin tuna! They are huge! On average they weigh about 30-40 pounds!

That's it for tonight! Have a great night & enjoy the warmth tomorrow!

~KDLT Meteorologist Aaron Shaffer