It is going to be a very interesting few days around South Dakota as we are expecting widespread 50's today but accumulating snow come Thursday. More on the snow in a second but first, the good news. Today looks to be quite mild with many locations climbing into the 50's that don't have any snow cover. The picture below is what a conglomeration of models is predicting our highs to be today. It is likely that some areas may be a little warmer this afternoon then shown below. You can see the large temperature difference between areas with snow cover to the north and east and the areas without to the south and west.
Now, on to the snow for Thursday. Aaron showed you snowfall predictions from a set of models yesterday. Well, those models haven't changed a whole lot since then and because of that, there is still some pretty big uncertainty on just how much snow we will receive. Well, the HPC (Hydrological Prediction Center) produces a probability map of the likelihood of snowfall amounts.
The last two maps I'm showing are exactly he same type of maps except they are for the hours from 6am Thursday through 6am on Friday.
So the general consensus from the HPC is that there is about a 50% probability of seeing a swath of at least 4 inches of snow across much of South Dakota and southern Minnesota from this next storm. We will try to become more certain about the exact snowfall amounts we are anticipating as the time nears. Hopefully the forecasting models will lend a hand. So, enjoy the sunshine and mild weather while its here because Christmas like weather is likely to return on Thursday.
Now, on to the snow for Thursday. Aaron showed you snowfall predictions from a set of models yesterday. Well, those models haven't changed a whole lot since then and because of that, there is still some pretty big uncertainty on just how much snow we will receive. Well, the HPC (Hydrological Prediction Center) produces a probability map of the likelihood of snowfall amounts. These first two maps show the probability of receiving at least 4 inches of snow and the probability of receiving at least 8 inches of snow from 6am Wednesday through 6am Thursday. The area inside the blue line indicates at least a 10% chance, inside the green line indicates at least a 40% chance, and inside the red line indicates at least a 70% chance of 4 inches of snow or 8 inches of snow.
The last two maps I'm showing are exactly he same type of maps except they are for the hours from 6am Thursday through 6am on Friday.So the general consensus from the HPC is that there is about a 50% probability of seeing a swath of at least 4 inches of snow across much of South Dakota and southern Minnesota from this next storm. We will try to become more certain about the exact snowfall amounts we are anticipating as the time nears. Hopefully the forecasting models will lend a hand. So, enjoy the sunshine and mild weather while its here because Christmas like weather is likely to return on Thursday.~KDLT Meteorologist Cody Matz
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Thoughts from you guys...