Monday, January 5, 2009

Tranquil Week... With Tranquil Snow?

We are watching as a couple of very weak storm systems make their way through the nation this week. We'll be seeing them flowing from the West to the East over the course of a couple of days.

The first one will be arriving Wednesday it looks like, and one thing to keep in mind is Cody's post from below - the jetstream is going to be right over us most of the week. That likely means at least a slim chance of flurries to a dusting of snow Wednesday through Friday. But, ripples in the jetstream will be the main cause of our snow chances - ripples are what we call "short waves" in the meteorological community. Small swirls of energy that make their way in. Regardless of what this one is, we will likely see some snow out of it.

This is still far away, keep in mind... but the following maps are what two different computer models think we'll be seeing as far as snow is concerned:

1) A Shorter Range Forecast Model (known as the NAM)


This model has some more snow in the forecast than the longer range forecast model. This one has a little bump farther toward the South and East, with maybe 1 or 2 inches in select locations.

2) A Longer Range Forecast Model (known as the GFS)

This is a model that I typically tend to side with, with decent results (you might argue differently, haha, but hopefully we have been nearly right-on for most storms this winter). It gives what looks like a 1-3" range for mostly the Missouri River Valley, and slightly farther to the East.

We'll see what happens over the next couple of days. If I had to do a forecast right now for Sioux Falls I'd probably go with up to an inch, or up to 1/2 of an inch.

Have a great Monday night!

~KDLT Meteorologist Aaron Shaffer

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