New Year's Eve Continued

Cody & I have been talking about New Year's Eve for a couple of days now, and there is some good news temperature-wise for those of you heading out. Here's what you can expect hour-by-hour in SE South Dakota and SW MN and NW IA:

If you live in a different area, we will give you an idea of what to expect as well, so don't fret.

NE South Dakota and west central Minnesota:

8pm: Near 14; Breezy

10pm: Near 16

12am: Near 17

2am: Near 18; Cloudy

North-central South Dakota:

8pm: Near 22-23; Mostly Cloudy; Breezy

10pm: Near 23-24; Mostly Cloudy

12am: Near 24; Decreasing Wind

2am: Near 25; Mostly Cloudy


And there you go! Have a fun and safe night if you're headed out!

~KDLT Meteorologist Aaron Shaffer

Warmer Tonight But Windy

We are looking for temperatures to continue to flip flop over the next few days. What I mean is that one day will be relatively mild while the next will be noticeably colder. Take this morning for instance; we had temperatures some 20-40 degrees colder this morning then yesterday morning. That's a pretty incredible jump. Well, that trend will continue tonight as lows will be in the early evening and then will begin to rise after 10pm. That means that by the time you wake up tomorrow morning, temperatures could already be in the twenties. It's much easier to just show you what I'm talking about. Below is a sequence of surface temperatures for the U.S. The first one is for 6pm tonight, the second is midnight, and the third is 6am tomorrow morning. Look how the temperatures actually rise during the night when we usually see them fall.

Now, to drive that warmer air in so quickly, you need a lot of warm air surging northward. Well, as you can imagine, that much moving air causes a tremendous amount of wind. Combining that wind and the temperature, you can determine the wind chill (the "feels like" temperature). So even with temperatures significantly warmer tonight then last night, it may end up feeling about the same. So bundle up if you're headed out tonight because its definitely going to feel like January.

~KDLT Meteorologist Cody Matz

Cold Night Tonight... Warmer For New Year's Eve?

We're seeing some really cold air make its way into the area behind that cold front that raced through... so once again we can thank our friends to the North for this nice shot of Canadian air...

Look at this image below:

These are model-predicted surface temperatures from a more "rapidly" updating computer model. It's actually called the RUC, or Rapid Update Cycle, model. Anyhow, it is showing even colder temperatures than we're predicting here at KDLT. It seems like it is exaggerating the cold air making its way in, although lows near 20 below zero near Sisseton wouldn't surprise me.

As for New Year's Eve night... we'll probably be doing an hour-by-hour planner tomorrow night to give you a good look, but here's something to hang your hat on for now:

If you again look at this picture closely, you'll see some temperatures close to 20ish around eastern South Dakota. That image above is from a longer-term type of computer model, and the temperature would be for around Midnight, or the start of the new 2009 year!

Have a great night tonight and bundle up! We'll have more for you later!

~KDLT Meteorologist Aaron Shaffer

Snow! And Snow Again. And Again?

That's right, we have 3 snow chances brewing for this week. We've been following those chances over the last couple of days (see last night's blog post right below this one).

We're watching as I'm writing this (and having just gotten done doing the weather on-air) some decent bands of snow moving through northern South Dakota. This is a radar image from 6:18pm (right now):

It looks like Selby just got hit by some moderate snow. We're going to be seeing a few patches like this, but in general we're still looking for most snow toward the NE corner of South Dakota and into west-central Minnesota.

We'll be following this storm closely - but for now if you live anywhere south of Aberdeen by about 50-100 miles you will likely see only flurries to a dusting of snow, similar to what we were looking at in our blog post last night. Nothing has really shifted.

Have a great night!

~KDLT Meteorologist Aaron Shaffer

Warm-Up For Sunday & Monday - Snow On Tuesday?

Get ready for some warm temperatures for this time of year in the southern 2/3 of South Dakota and into southwest Minnesota! Us folks in the South can enjoy some pretty nice weather to start off the week - with temperatures held a little more in check farther to the North thanks to a smaller storm system making its way through North Dakota over the next 2 days. After the brief warm-up (with cold to the North) we see snow showers move in. Most of us in SE SD and NW IA and SW MN can look for just flurries to *maybe* a dusting of snow out of that next system Tuesday. Toward the North it's a different picture.

Here's what some of the models are showing as far as snow totals are concerned:

Right now I would expect around 3-4 inches for the Aberdeen - but if you read the caption on the image above, you can see there is still some wiggle room for more or less snow in the area. Stay tuned!

As for those warmer temperatures.... I like to show you that one similar model-forecasted image of statistical types of temperatures. Here is the latest one for our area for Monday, and you can see the contrast there:

You can see forecasted 30s to 40s over southern South Dakota quickly contrasting up to single digit temperatures in the southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba areas. Some of those colder temperatures will affect us as we head into Tuesday, but not quite as drastically as you might think given those colder temperatures in southern Canada.

Have a great start to your week! Check back with us if you are concerned about how much snow we'll be seeing.

~KDLT Meteorologist Aaron Shaffer

Nasty Midwestern Weather

Think we've got it bad here in Sioux Falls or the rest of the Sioux Empire? You should see some of the pictures coming out of Illinois and Wisconsin, and now storms moving into Indiana. They're seeing flooding rains just days after 5 or more inches of snow, and some pretty strong to severe thunderstorms as well.

They're getting some definitely unwanted rain in the Chicago area today, with some areas picking up anywhere from 3/4" of rain to 2.75" - on top of ice and snow from earlier in the week! Look at this image below:

If you look closely on the left of that picture you can see numbers associated with the colors. Those are radar estimated rainfall totals in inches. Lots of rain in that area!

Not only that, but as I'm writing this (about 5:50pm Saturday) we are seeing a line of severe thunderstorms moving into western Kentucky. Look at this radar image - it almost looks like we're in a summer type of weather pattern:

You can see a nice little squall line moving into the Paducah, KY, area. We'll be seeing all that stuff back in the Sioux Empire soon enough, but for now at least it's farther toward the east with the damaging winds and tornado threats.

Have a great night! Enjoy the period of more calm weather we're seeing.

~KDLT Meteorologist Aaron Shaffer

Warmth, A Cooldown, And More Warmth...

Hopefully you got a chance to get out and enjoy some of those temperatures we saw today! It was absolutely amazing out there with temperatures at or above 4o degrees for much of the Sioux Empire. If you are like me, and got those warm temperatures (not seen in the northwest corner of South Dakota), you probably enjoyed seeing the ice chunks melt off of your vehicle.

Unfortunately, all good things must end - but thankfully this ending will be shorter than most. We are looking for some snow showers we talked about last night that are associated with a cold front to move in and move toward the East. That means we'll see a brief cold snap for Saturday. We'll only return to the 20s, but low 20s will be about 20 degrees colder than what we saw Friday.

Here's some computer model temperatures (the colder Saturday ones) you can expect to see around the area - this one combines a computer model with measured statistics from each area:

One thing to notice is how close the teens are to much of our viewing area. They are mostly in North Dakota, but a few people up near Sisseton and west toward Mobridge might be looking at a high of 17-20 degrees this Saturday. Thankfully it's short-lived. Look at some of these temperatures that will move in for Sunday:

Notice the model-predicted 40s on the map again! Those are great news. I went tonight with a high of 35 for Sioux Falls this Sunday, so we'll see how close I end up. There's a pretty sharp gradient in temperatures from 40s to 20s for Sunday, so we should fit in quite nicely in the middle there.

We'll update you again tomorrow!

Have a great weekend!

~KDLT Meteorologist Aaron Shaffer

A Warm Christmas? Snow Messing Up Travel Plans?

If you were anywhere near Sioux Falls, you might have wondered just how warm things got today compared to the usual... Well, here it is:

We weren't even close to that record of 50 from back in 1959! Oh well - it still sure felt quite a bit warmer than what we've seen around these parts lately!

Speaking of wintry weather... there is yet another snow storm coming for the area. Here's the deal with this one. The last few have had a lot of computer model disagreements, not to mention actual meteorologist disagreements - but with this one we are all in pretty good agreement: The western half of South Dakota is going to be getting some decent snow.

Keep that in mind if you are doing any traveling on a return trip or weekend trip in the Dakotas:

You probably have noticed that any model forecasted snowfall is suspiciously missing from Sioux Falls... that is actually seeming to be right. Expect maybe a couple brief passing light snow showers or the like.

That's it for now! Hopefully you like watching me doing weather, because you're going to be seeing a LOT of me the next few days. I had a few days off to celebrate Christmas with my family, and now Cody and Jesse are both doing the same. Have a Merry Christmas if you celebrate it! If you are Jewish, then have a pleasant 5th night of Hanukkah! If you are something else, then just Happy Holidays!

~KDLT Meteorologist Aaron Shaffer

Freezing Drizzle??

The freezing drizzle possibility for late Thursday and into Friday I believe is getting less and less likely. Here is why I'm thinking that. First off, looking at all of the models and using all of the forecasting techniques I know, the atmosphere is primed for a freezing rain event. However, there is one HUGE factor that may prevent it from happening all together (well in our area anyway). The models are forecasting an enormous dry layer in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere. So basically, that's saying that there just may not be enough moisture for this to happen. Let me show you. The picture below is what we call a forecast sounding. If you were to release a balloon into the atmosphere, the bottom of this picture represents the ground, and the top of the picture represents the top of the troposphere (the part of the atmosphere that contains weather). We actually measure the height by millibars, and those can be found on the left side of the graph. Remember that 850 mb is about 5000 ft, so that should put things into perspective. The red line on the graph is the temperature as you go up into the sky and the green line represents the dew point. Now, the closer they are to touching one another, the more moisture there is in that layer of the atmosphere. For instance, on the bottom of the graph you can basically only see the green line. Well that's because the two are so close to each other that you can't even see both of them. That indicates there is a lot of moisture. Well, you will notice that the only layer of the atmosphere that has moisture is very close to the ground, I circled that in blue. But the rest of the atmosphere is extremely dry, circled that in yellow. So this may show that there just wont be a deep enough layer of moisture to really get any freezing rain falling. This is the dilemma of forecasting. Still going to say that there will be some very light showers out there but don't count on getting much more then that. Keep watching KDLT and we will keep you updated.

~KDLT Meteorologist Cody Matz

Cold Today, Warm Tomorrow

Wow, Jesse gave you some great details on forecasting for freezing rain, so I will hold off on that subject until tonight and talk about today. Another quick cold snap for today with a cold pool of air in place. I call it a cold pool because it is literally that; a cold pool. You can see that on the 850mb temperature map that I show all the time.Look how there is literally a circle of cold air. Typically this will happen with very light winds and a strong ridge of high pressure. The high pressure builds into an area, cools off the air in one way or another, and then the winds are so light and the cold air is often so dense that it literally gets trapped near the high pressure. So wherever that high pressure goes, the cold air just follows along with it. But this high pressure doesn't stick around for long because by tomorrow morning look at the drastic change in temperatures.Many areas of South Dakota are actually above freezing at 850mb (5000 ft), I have those areas circled. So that's where the freezing rain that Jesse was talking about comes into play. Ill touch more on that subject tonight but I hope everyone has a great Christmas Eve!

~KDLT Meteorologist Cody Matz

Freezing Rain Potential

Another shot of cold air for Wednesday but it'll be gone as quickly as it came, warmer weather returns for Christmas Day. As we see the temps increase, we'll also see the chance for precip. increase. And I hate to be a downer, but it looks like there is a slight chance for freezing rain in Southeast South Dakota, Southern Minnesota, Northern Iowa and Northern Nebraska for Christmas Day night. And you can thank the warm air for that... Here are a few things we look at as meteorologists to determine if freezing rain is going to be a possibility: I usually will look at the heights first, this particular model has the 540 height just around the Sisseton area around midnight between Christmas Day and the day after Christmas. Many meteorologists use the 540 line as a hint to check out what type of precipitation to expect. If the 540 line is to the South of the area, usually we'll see snow. If the 540 line is way to our North, we'll see rain, but if it's relatively close, we need to look into some other things to see if there's the chance for freezing rain or sleet, etc.This is usually the thing I'll check next as far as the potential for freezing rain goes. I look at how much precip. a particular area is supposed to get according to one model then look at what the temperature at 850mb is supposed to be and what the temperature at the surface is supposed to be. If the temperature at 850mb is below -3, usually we'll get snow as long as the surface temperature is below freezing. If that temp is warmer than that and the surface temperature is still below freezing, that's when the potential for freezing rain is really apparent. Thursday evening looks like the 850mb temp is -2 and the surface temp is 28, so that means we'll see any precip that does fall start off as rain and freeze as it gets to the surface.
I'll usually check this great product called Bufkit. The red area that I circled in yellow is where the chance for freezing rain exists, right around 7pm on Thursday.

Of course there are a whole lot of other factors we look into as meteorologists... right now it looks like we will have a pretty dry air mass sitting on top of us for Christmas Day, so the chance that any precip. will actually fall Christmas Day evening is slim right now, but this chance will help some snow showers early on Friday morning.

Every meteorologist has their own method for determining what type of precip. we'll see, maybe Cody will fill you in on his methods in the morning :)

~KDLT Meteorologist Jesse Ritka

P.S. If you aren't up on the weather vocabulary, here's a great site to give you the basics: http://www.theweatherprediction.com/jargon/

Quickly Turning Colder

Pretty mild this morning as I'm writing this but cold air is just across the state. Low pressure right on top of the state so mild southerly winds across the East and cold Northwesterly winds across areas of the west. Pretty easy to find the front on this surface map.

The temperatures are in red; so its 18 in Sioux Falls, who is ahead of the front. Then its 2 in Phillip, who is behind the front. Another way you can tell where the front is, is by the wind direction. Ahead of it, Sioux Falls, Yankton, Aberdeen, all of the winds are coming from the South. Behind the front, all of the winds are out of the Northwest like Phillip, Pierre, and Buffalo. I also drew in the cold front just in case you couldn't find it. So the subzero weather will be returning but only for a very brief period because by Christmas day, it looks like subzero readings might be gone for at least a few days.

~KDLT Meteorologist Cody Matz

Snow's Here . . . Again . . .

Well no shock here - snow's right on time in the SE section of the state, so this is somewhat of a round one. You can see round two on our regional radar.

This is more of the piddly snow that won't just slam a whole bunch of accumulating snow into one area. The most to expect is still in the North along the North Dakota-South Dakota border but only about 2-4 inches will accumulate there. For the morning commute, things may be a bit messy on the roads, so be careful. Looks like Iowa's going to be getting some heavy snow tonight and into tomorrow, there's already a nice looking band from Omaha stretching South and East. Too bad we can't just get a big snow and get it over with, Iowa keeps stealing all the thunder. The active wind and snow pattern will continue - but thankfully we'll see a break in the action for Christmas Day before another round of snow on Friday. This will be another quick system so expect measurable snow to have moved into Minnesota before the noon-hour.

~KDLT Meteorolgist Jesse Ritka

Staying Windy

A brief reprieve from the winds this morning but they will return with a vengeance this afternoon but this time, from the South instead of the North. Now, that will be a warming wind as it usually is. Warm of course is a relative term because temperatures aren't going to get all that warm but they will be warmer then the past couple of days. That South wind will really be cranking tonight as shown by the picture below. This is the 850mb chart again but a little bit different look to it because it comes from a different source.

But you can see the wind barbs that I have circled over Eastern South Dakota that are topping 60 knots (about 75 mph). But thankfully, these winds are going to be crossing the area at night because with the typical inversion that we get at night, it is tough to bring winds from the upper atmosphere down to the surface. So, we may see wind gusts of 25 or 30 mph, but nowhere close to 60 or 70.

Its going to be a couple of windy days to start this week but the good news is that Christmas Eve and Christmas Day is shaping up to be pretty calm.

~KDLT Meteorologist Cody Matz

Another Shot of Snow

Well we are certainly in a very active weather pattern, it looks like we've got another one coming - of course with these quick systems we only see 1-3 inches generally. So they are almost a pain for shovelers - it's pretty much every 2 or 3 days we get another 2 inches or so. Brookings and Huron seem to be a target lately - so don't be shocked if you see some more locally heavy snow from this system. The good news is that this snow will be relatively light in nature just hanging around from after dinner time on Monday through the noon hour on Tuesday.

The great thing about this system is that Tuesday will have southerly winds so we'll warm things up just a bit for Tuesday. But as quickly as we'll warm things up, we'll get another blast of cold air. Rollercoaster ride of temperatures since we'll see another warm up just in time for Christmas. And no incredibly large systems are expected to push through Christmas Eve or Christmas Day for travelers, although the weekend after doesn't look as hot. We'll see how things shape up as we get closer to then.

~KDLT Meteorologist Jesse Ritka

The One Good Thing About This Blizzard

Honestly, I'm sick of these incredibly strong winds and bone chilling temperatures... so I'm going to share with you a fun weather phenomenon that I happened to catch on our sky-cam today.

SUNDOGS! I circled the one I caught today - usually there is another one on the other side of the camera, but I couldn't zoom out far enough on the camera to get them both in there. Sundogs aren't the most common thing to catch, they are usually only seen on really cold days when there are tiny ice crystals in the air. SO because we've seen blizzard conditions in Sioux Falls... more ice crystals were kicked up into the air as the snow fell and was blown around from the strong winds. This made it possible for the sun to bounce off the ice crystals resulting in what looks like a miniature sun or comet. The ice crystals in the air reflect the sun's light at an angle of 22 degrees. They are most commonly seen when cirrus clouds pass through and usually around sunrise and sunset when the sun is low in the sky.
Hopefully that warmed up your day a little bit - if not grab some hot cocoa :) Wind chill warnings are in effect for all night tonight and into Sunday morning, so bundle up if you must go outside.

~KDLT Meteorologist Jesse Ritka

Blizzard Update - 10:25pm

We're starting to already see wind chills waaaay below zero in extreme western South Dakota and temperatures that are around or slightly below zero. Not only that, but snow is building in.

This is where the snow is:


Snow is showing up even at this early hour only about 25 miles to the West (of Sioux Falls). If you are watching us from about Salem or Parker to the West or the South, you'll likely be seeing snow, or are currently seeing it as I'm typing this.

Be safe, and watch us tomorrow!

~KDLT Meteorologist Aaron Shaffer

Blizzard Update...

This storm is looking mighty impressive - especially with regard to wind. A HUGE pressure gradient is looking to develop right along the Minnesota/South Dakota border. We're talking winds sustained at about 20-40mph, with gusts higher than that at times. Add to that some accumulating snow, and you have quite a potential mess on your hands. You can expect to hear howling winds all day long, and if you are traveling (which we strongly recommend against, by the way) you will likely encounter closed roads and highways. If you are able to drive around, you'll likely encounter whiteout conditions at times, with extremely low visibility all day long.

Here are our latest snowfall forecast totals:

Things haven't started yet... but it's definitely been interesting and will get much more interesting over the next 6-12 hours.

We'll update you again as new information comes in... and also during the blizzard itself. I'll have my digital camera at home with me and ready to post from home, and Jesse Ritka has been preparing to handle this "blizzardy" forecast for this weekend - it's her second weekend in a row now with blizzards. In fact, it's going to be the 2nd blizzard and 4th snowstorm overall in the last 6 days!

Be safe!

~KDLT Meteorologist Aaron Shaffer

Blizzard Number 3

I don't know the last time that South Dakota has had 3 blizzards in the fall but it has been a while. Here comes the third one to round out fall and to officially start the winter season. This one will effect a little bit different area however. Instead of being in mainly western and central South Dakota, it will include Eastern South Dakota, much of Minnesota and Iowa. Blizzard watches and even some warnings are already issued as you saw by Aaron's blog. Here is the main reason why we are seeing the blizzard again. Low pressure goes by us and an extremely strong high pressure builds to our West causing the pressure gradient needed to really get the winds goin. Here is an image of 850 mb winds (about 5000 feet) that can be transported down to the surface during this kind of event.

The area in red shows sustained winds at 50 knots (about 60 mph). With these kind of winds, we are expecting tremendous blowing and drifting of the snow so even if its not actually snowing, it will probably look like it is. My recommendation is to just stay inside and wait it out. If you are planning on traveling tomorrow, I would advise you to try and get to your destination today or just wait till Sunday evening when things finally wind down. Aaron will update you tonight on the expected snowfall which will be heavier in the Northeast this go around. Stay safe this weekend!

~KDLT Meteorologist Cody Matz

Snow Tonight... And A Blizzard Saturday?

Update - 10:08pm...

We're watching as snow gets closer - now about 30-35 miles away. Here is a radar image from 10:08pm Thursday night as the snow approaches:



From earlier:

Yup, that's right - 2 big storms in basically 2 days... Things are not looking good travel-wise for a while. Not only that, we get another arctic blast as we get that second storm - the one which looks like it might end up being a blizzard.

So, first things first... our snowstorm for tonight. We're already starting to see the snow fall for some of us, but here is what we're looking for tentatively by morning:


You might notice that things look a little snowier than they did last night. This storm has shown a tendency toward more moisture being wrapped into the system over the last 24 hours.

We'll see how this storm lines up with actual readings come tomorrow morning.

Next, the upcoming potential blizzard...

We're seeing blizzard warnings already being issued covering much of northern, northeastern, and eastern South Dakota, and into west-central Minnesota.

This was our map for our 6pm show Thursday night with official blizzard watch outlines:

We'll be keeping a close eye on wind potential, along with snow potential, for Saturday to Saturday night. It's looking pretty nasty. Here's a rundown of what you can expect: Look for winds to pick up as the storm nears, then temperatures drop all day long (similar to last week's storm) to somewhere near or below zero, and the winds blow around the snow - which should end up in the 1-3" range.

Stay tuned and we'll update you whenever something new comes in with these 2 pretty major storms... and drive safely!

~KDLT Meteorologist Aaron Shaffer

Snow Tonight

Still looks like portions of Iowa and Minnesota are likely to get a significant snow storm. However, the surface low that we typically track will be developing on the fly, meaning that it will still be developing as it rockets by us tonight. Now, this makes forecasting snowfall amounts abnormally difficult because depending on exactly where this low develops and moves will result in how much snow we will receive. The difficulty of this forecast has correlated into the forecast models as well because they too have been wavering on the snowfall accumulations; one model run will say 8" and the next will say 2". So you can see why this is an extremely difficult forecast. Despite all of the obstacles, it still looks like many of us across the southeast will see a decent amount of snow. Here is what the National Weather Service is predicting for snowfall and I am really backing them up because my forecast is very similar.Looks like Sioux Falls will get 2-4", Mitchell will see 1-3", Worthington 3-5", and places like Spencer and Cherokee could end up will 6". I realize this map only shows the southeast but I wanted to focus on them because of the heavy snow. Looks like the North and West will still see some light snow but we are expecting all accumulations to be under 2".

Another storm will be on the heels of this one so stay tuned to our blog or watch KDLT news for updates about the next storm that could significantly impact your weekend plans. Stay safe!!

~KDLT Meteorologist Cody Matz

Questionable Snow Storm...

Well, Cody and I have been having some fun now with our next snowstorm for a couple of days... I actually started forecasting right after I woke up this morning to get a head start - and thank goodness for that! This is a tough one.

Here is what I've sorted out - but it's not without some troubles:

This map makes it seem very cut & dry - but believe me when I say it's anything but cut & dry. We are seeing some warmth wrap its way into this system, so portions of Iowa and Nebraska could see some freezing rain quickly at the beginning change to snow. Portions of SE Iowa could actually end up with a significant ice storm. This is because this system will be moving in from the Southwest. It has some very warm air it is wrapping up into the system.

Make sure you stay tuned to KDLT both at 10pm tonight and tomorrow morning for the latest snowfall totals from me and our morning meteorologist Cody Matz. Especially make sure you stay tuned if the exact amount of snow is important to you at all.

Have a great night!

~KDLT Meteorologist Aaron Shaffer

Groundhog Day

Here we go again! More snow is headed our way as this very active pattern continues. Winter Storm Watches already in effect for counties in Iowa and Minnesota for Thursday afternoon through Friday Morning. Those areas have the potential to see 6+ inches of snow. Here is just one of the models that we typically show you. The areas shaded in green are 4+ inches of snow and the bulls eye of light blue is 10 inches of snow. As you see there, not much distance between that bulls eye and our area so that's what concerns us. Now, all that storm would have to do is jog a little bit further to the Northwest and we are talking about a drastic increase in the amount of snow that we could get.

The other part of the storm is that there will be the possibility of some sleet and freezing rain to start out the storm in Iowa and extreme southern South Dakota and Minnesota. This happens when you get over running. Over running means that relatively warm air aloft (air above freezing) moves over sub freezing temperatures at the surface. So, it can be cold enough to snow at the surface but that layer of warm air can cause the snowflake to melt before it hits the ground causing freezing rain and sleet. I have highlighted the freezing line at air that's a couple thousand feet off the surface.

You can see that the warmer air is not quite to northwest Iowa but if it were to end up just a little further north, freezing rain would be likely. Well, enjoy the sunshine today because this storm is coming tomorrow!

~KDLT Meteorologist Cody Matz

Catching Up To Averages...

We *had* been way behind in our snow season snow totals just a couple of weeks ago pre-December. Fast forward 16 days to December 16th, and we've seen snow 13 of the past 16 days that can be measured to be at least a trace amount. Now we are catching up to the average in Sioux Falls. We are now officially up to 11.3" of snow this snow season thanks to an additional 2.6" we picked up today. That puts us at 1.3" below average now, with the average being 12.6" today.

In Mitchell we've seen 13.7" which puts us 6" above our 7.7" average at this point.

Did we mention that we have more snow on the way already for Thursday? We're going to keep a close eye on this one as well, with the majority of the storm coming from the Southwest. That means it'll give us at least a bit of warming along with the snow. Don't expect to see our frigid weather continue.

Here's what the models are showing so far for Thursday:

Option A)

This model would put eastern South Dakota and southwest Minnesota in the 1-3" range. It is more reasonable that the other option below.

Option B)

This one shows around 2-4" of snow around the area in a 12 hour period. We'll keep you updated as this next system forms - as well as on our next system after this one (Saturday). Have a great rest of your Tuesday!

~KDLT Meteorologist Aaron Shaffer

More Snow Today

Still talking about the snowfall for today. Snowing in Sioux Falls as I write this. Still looking at relatively light amounts of snow with this system as it's going to be a pretty quick hitter. Generally 1-3" across the Southeastern zones of the viewing area; mainly East and South of Sioux Falls. This map shows it the best with the area in yellow being about 3 inches, and it just barely skips through Northwest Iowa. To get a bit technical for a moment, this is not what you would refer to as a "normal" storm system. Typically you have some surface features; a low pressure, and warm and cold fronts stretching out from it. Well, this storm is a little different because it has none of those components. Its more along the lines of what you would call and upper level disturbance with a VERY broad area of low pressure. Well, I mention this because when you have a system of this nature, they don't have the normal and more obvious boundaries that trigger storms, or in this case snow. We have to dig a little deeper. So, this picture below is something that's a little more complex then what we typically show but this storm gave me the perfect opportunity to show you this map.

This is what we call an Isentropic Analysis map. This shows us areas in the atmosphere with basic uplift and descent; basically, it gives us an overview of what the atmosphere is doing. Simply put, when you see the wind barbs crossing over the red lines then you have some sort of forcing, either lifting or descending. So, when your barbs are moving air toward the smaller numbers, then you have uplift. I circled the area over South Dakota and Nebraska as an example. When the wind barbs are moving air toward the larger numbers, then you have decent. I circled the area over Utah as an example. Remember that the red lines and wind barbs do not have to be perpendicular to each other, they just have to cross at some angle. The larger the angle they cross however, the stronger the forcing.
Hopefully you understood at least one part of my explanation so you can take a little piece of weather knowledge with you. If you have any questions, please feel free to comment and I can go into more depth at a later date. But regardless of that, I hope you enjoy the snow because I will!

~KDLT Meteorologist Cody Matz

Blizzard Recap

Cody mentioned the snow totals in his blog post - and it still seems like most of the new snow toward Tuesday/Tuesday afternoon will be in eastern South Dakota, with the highest accumulations in our viewing area coming in northwest Iowa at up to 2-4 inches, with a sharp drop-off right to the west of Sioux Falls.

We saw some crazy weather over the weekend, though. We'll cover it all, but here is a basic summary using Sioux Falls as an example:

We started off Sunday by reaching our highest temperature of the day at 12:11am, so basically Saturday night. The high was 33 degrees.

We ended the day with our low occurring as late as possible - 11:59pm and with a low of -6 degrees.

We didn't get much snow in Sioux Falls, but around the rest of the area we snow some pretty large totals:

ROSCOE.............12.0 INCHES
SISSETON 10 ENE....10.0 INCHES
WHEATON MN..........9.4 INCHES
MILBANK.............8.0 INCHES
COLUMBIA............8.0 INCHES
HOSMER 11 E.........8.0 INCHES
HOUGHTON............7.5 INCHES
BRITTON.............7.5 INCHES
ABERDEEN............7.1 INCHES
HARROLD.............7.0 INCHES
CLEAR LAKE..........7.0 INCHES
VICTOR..............7.0 INCHES
ORTONVILLE MN.......7.0 INCHES
WEBSTER.............6.5 INCHES
ARTICHOKE LAKE MN...6.0 INCHES
BROWNS VALLEY.......6.0 INCHES
ELM LAKE............6.0 INCHES
BOWDLE..............6.0 INCHES
WATERTOWN...........6.0 INCHES
SISSETON............6.0 INCHES
TINTAH..............5.2 INCHES
GETTYSBURG..........5.0 INCHES
FAULTON.............5.0 INCHES
LEOLA...............5.0 INCHES
ORTONVILLE MN.......5.0 INCHES
MURDO...............4.5 INCHES
BLUNT...............4.0 INCHES
PIERRE..............4.0 INCHES

So, to summarize... some pretty nasty stuff was out there.

We'll have more updates on the snow for Tuesday as they come in and/or as necessary.

Have a great night and stay warm!

~KDLT Meteorologist Aaron Shaffer

More Snow Tomorrow

Jesse really hit home with the dangerous wind chills that we will be experiencing today so I will look at our next snow chance. Can you believe that we are expecting more snow as early as tomorrow? It doesn't appear like it will be a tremendous amount of snow but enough to use the shovels and snow blowers. The the silver lining that I can find with this storm though is that it looks like the majority of the snow will fall in many areas that dont have alot. The picture below is an estimate of how much snow we are expecting.This is just one of the many models that predict snowfall but I agree with this particular one the most. So, it looks like the heaviest snow will fall in Iowa and Minnesota with just very light amounts as you get into South Dakota. The best chances for 3+ inches of snow looks to be from about the Yankton area through much of Northern Iowa and Southern Minnesota. The only concern I have with this storm is the speed. It is expected to move pretty quick right now, but if it were to slow down a little, then snowfall totals would go up in many areas. So if you are planning on doing some traveling tomorrow, make sure to have your emergency kit packed and in your car, just in case.

~KDLT Meteorologist Cody Matz

Worried About Wind Chill

So in addition to blizzard conditions sticking around through tonight... we're going to have those wicked winds just stay with us as well. Just looking at the forecast high temperatures for Monday brings chills down my spine, but then you factor in the NW winds... it's going to be brutal.

The National Weather Service has put Windchill Warnings in effect for every county in dark blue, so that means it will feel anywhere between 35 and 55 degrees below zero. Taking a look at the NWS windchill chart, this means frostbite could go into effect within 30 minutes with lighter winds and warmer temperatures. The colder the temp and higher the wind, frostbite could set in within 10 minutes and even within 5 minutes if it gets incredibly cold and windy.

I really can't stress enough how important it is to stay inside as much as possible tonight and tomorrow... these are extremely dangerous conditions to venture outdoors in. Be careful and stay warm!

~KDLT Meteorologist Jesse Ritka

Blizzard Blast!

Well we've been tracking this storm for quite some time... it's finally pushing east into our area, blizzard watches are all now blizzard warnings. The National Weather Service upgraded these to warnings because the conditions are really looking favorable for winds in excess of 30 miles an hour - sustained! Along with the falling snow - we are going to be looking at blowing snow to kick up and reduce visibilities to under a quarter mile. In addition to downright cold temperatures that will fall throughout the day, we'll see dangerous wind chill values: 10-20 degrees BELOW zero. Expect these conditions to last for longer than 3 hours - thus why a blizzard status was needed. From Knox county in Nebraska up to Cottonwood county in Minnesota, all the blue counties are under a winter weather advisory. This means the same storm system will bring NW winds sustained at 15-25 mph, chilly temps as well as lowered visibilities under a half mile. Wrap up every part of your body if you MUST, and I stress MUST, go outside.

While I think this model is overestimating things... I do think it has the 2 areas of the heaviest snow in the right place. The salmon color denotes 12-14 inches of snow, I think we'll get closer to 8-10 inches in those areas. But this particular model does seem to have a good outlook on where the heavier stuff will fall. And hey, if you check back to last Sunday's post - looks like the "model fantasy land" forecast pretty much panned out - sorry if you are in the SE and wanted all that snow . . . doesn't look like we'll see a dumping in Sioux Falls - but the blowing snow will make it seem like it's snowing all day. If I wasn't going to be keeping an eye on the storm here at work I would definitely be inside making some Christmas cookies - sugar cookies just sound so good!

Keep warm!

~KDLT Meteorologist Jesse Ritka

Blizzard Coming... And Cold Too!

Alright, so maybe that "!" is unnecessary in the title for this post - but we still have some REALLY nasty weather headed to most of us for this weekend. Toward Saturday night look for snow to start up as the cold front moves in for that area - we'll then see some snow showers pick up as well. Then things really get going toward Sunday morning. We'll see some snowfall totals edging in around the 5-7" mark for a lot of people, with some locations that are more isolated picking up closer to 8 or 9 inches. Add to that some strong winds, and you've got yourself a blizzard. Then, add to the blizzard an arctic blast - and I don't even know what you call it. I guess you could just call it really bad weather.

We'll cover it point by point below...

1) Snow Potential

You can see a sharp gradient from 1" of snow to about 10" forecasted. Our totals are pretty close from our KDLT weather center, for now, to those of this computer model above. In Sioux Falls we're looking for some totals around 1-2 inches of blowing snow. Expect those winds to howl on Sunday.

Speaking of winds...

2) Wind Potential

You can see if you look closely, winds about 20-25mph sustained by midday Sunday. Some of those winds will reach higher than that as well - likely upwards of 35-45mph with gusts over 50. They will be chilly winds from the North.

Speaking of chilly winds...

3) Cold Temperature Potential

Look for highs Sunday to be in the morning with a steady drop all day long - ending up below zero. Some highs for Monday as per the computer models, which have issues when they apply statistics to things, are shown below:


Highs below zero? You bet! Look for that to happen in the northern half of South Dakota for Monday, following the blizzard.

And there you have it... things aren't looking too good weather-wise. All that being said, have a good weekend and travel safely if you have to travel at all. Try to avoid travel on Sunday if you can.

~KDLT Meteorologist Aaron Shaffer