Still looks like portions of Iowa and Minnesota are likely to get a significant snow storm. However, the surface low that we typically track will be developing on the fly, meaning that it will still be developing as it rockets by us tonight. Now, this makes forecasting snowfall amounts abnormally difficult because depending on
exactly where this low develops and moves will result in how much snow we will
receive. The difficulty of this forecast has
correlated into the forecast models as well because they too have been wavering on the snowfall accumulations; one model run will say 8" and the next will say 2". So you can see why this is an extremely difficult forecast. Despite all of the obstacles, it still looks like many of us across the southeast will see a decent amount of snow. Here is what the National Weather Service is predicting for snowfall and I am really backing them up because my forecast is very similar.
Looks like Sioux Falls will get 2-4", Mitchell will see 1-3", Worthington 3-5", and places like Spencer and Cherokee could end up will 6". I realize this map only shows the southeast but I wanted to focus on them because of the heavy snow. Looks like the North and West will still see some light snow but we are expecting all accumulations to be under 2".
Another storm will be on the heels of this one so stay tuned to our blog or watch KDLT news for updates about the next storm that could significantly impact your weekend plans. Stay safe!!
~KDLT Meteorologist Cody Matz
4 comments:
How do you decide which forecast model to use when you have more than one that varies dramatically?
We evaluate the current conditions to figure out which model is portraying whats happening the best. Then, we can evaluate model trends; like is one model continuing to show more and more snow or is one model consistantly colder then the other one. After doing all of that we decide which one is forecasting the best. However, even then we might tweak the model a bit and go with temperatures a degree warmer then what the model said or go with a little more or less snow. We do this for many reasons because the models dont account for many variables that can change on a daily basis, for instance, snow cover. So, long story short, we try to combine every condition possible to come up with a forecast using the model that appears to be doing the best.
I've heard people mention that it is sometimes too cold to snow. Does temperature have any effect on whether it snows?
Howdy,
It can never really be too cold to snow... but it can be too cold to snow *efficiently.* Snow grows best in a range from about 10 to 20 degrees below zero Celsius. It is actually kind of interesting to read about the physics of snow creation - so perhaps we might post something about that in the weather blog if we ever stop getting these blizzards!
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