Cold Weather Welcomes 2010

A huge snow storm for Christmas, cold weather for New Years, is that fair? We are going to start off 2010 with a huge Arctic blast. December 31st high temperature was 10 degrees, warm compared to what will see for the first week of January with highs in the single digits every day. January first we should be at 25 for a high and 3 for a low, forecast high: 6; forecast low:-9. January second looks to be a little worst: high of 6 and a low at -14 (and that might be conservative with some models putting us at -25!!!). Our winds are rushing in from the north which is bringing in cold Canadian air and every model continues this northerly flow for a week. Below you'll see an image of the 6am forecast temp on January first, winds from the north and temps in the -10 to -5 range here in Sioux Falls.

January Seconds image is scary, below you'll see dark reds entering the area, these are dangerously cold temperatures and if the winds decide to pick-up (not forecasted to) it can feel 45 below zero, if not worst.

The dark red temperatures are -30 to -25, with the bright red colors in Southwestern Minnesota valued at -40 to -35 temperatures, VERY COLD. Luckily this is just a model and our temperatures should not approach these readings. Even tho we will not approach -40 still use caution when outside, especially at night, its dangerous to be breathing in such cold temperatures when your body sits at 98.6 degrees, it could cause your body to go into shock.

Stay Safe!

~KDLT Meteorologist Dan Bronis

Happy New Year! Plus a Rare Occurance Tonight!

Happy New Year's Eve! We are going to bring the new year in on ice though, ice cold temperatures at least, everyone will be below zero during the overnight tonight, and even with a little bit of wind (N Calm-5 during the overnight) we'll see wind chill values into the teens below zero. Bundle up to enjoy the start to the new year!There's also something pretty rare that will occur tonight though we may not be able see it due to the cloud cover, but we will see a little bit of clearing during the overnight. The rarity is going to be the moon, although a full moon ISN'T rare, 2 full moons in one month is. It only occurs every 2.5 years, and it occurs on New Years Eve even less frequently; only once every 19 years. Because of the rarity of this event, we get the phrase "Once in a Blue Moon" - fun little fact for the day. And in Europe, Africa and Asia folks will be able to catch a partial lunar eclipse in addition to the Blue Moon where the moon will actually go partially into the Earth's shadow. It's not going to be a huge partial lunar eclipse, only roughly 8% of the Moon will darkened by the Earth's shadow. And these partial lunar eclipses during a Blue Moon are the most rare, only occurring once every 91 years. Check out SpaceWeather's website for an animated preview.

Have a Safe and Happy New Year!
~KDLT Meteorologist Jesse Ritka

Snow Cover

Lots of snow has now fallen across many parts of the country with the large Christmas storm and several others. This can have large effects on our climate. The more snow that's on the ground in the U.S., the more shortwave radiation is reflected into the atmosphere, therefore, temperatures are typically colder then normal for much of the country. The large snow mass can also lead to stronger and longer cold weather outbreaks because the snow acts like a refrigerator and keeps the atmosphere quite cold. This looks like it will be a reality soon as some arctic air will work its way into the area by New Years Eve. But look at the massive amounts of snow across the state and across the country.

State Snow cover:

U.S. Snow Cover:
Hopefully we can melt some of this snow before Spring or we will likely have to deal with a pretty large Spring flood.

~KDLT Meteorologist Cody Matz

Pictures!

We love getting weather pictures from you guys, especially when it comes to big storms like this one. Any time you snap a picture of something weather related (it can even be of a nice sunny day) you can send them in to weather@kdlt.com and we'll try to get them on air, our Sioux Falls skycam only zooms in so far! Here's a look at a few of the pictures that were sent in... This one was in Parkston as the blizzard was going on, you can barely see the car just up the road from this house.I love looking at these snowdrifts, they're incredibly impressive! The kids are probably having a wild time digging tunnels and building snow forts with all this snow.

Keep sending those pictures in!
~KDLT Meteorologist Jesse Ritka

Final Snow Totals....

I know we have thrown a lot of numbers at you the last couple of days, but all of those have been unofficial totals. Well now all totals have been confirmed and are going down in the official records. Wow, what a storm. You really have to search to find areas that saw less then a foot of snow and in some cases, saw as much as two feet. This storm will go down as the 4th largest snow storm in South Dakota history since records began in the 1880's. Here are some maps showing just how much snow areas saw both in our area and in other areas this storm ravaged.

Sioux Falls National Weather Service Coverage Area:

Aberdeen National Weather Service Coverage Area:Fargo National Weather Service Coverage Area:Twin Cities National Weather Service Coverage Area: Omaha National Weather Service Coverage Area:North Platte National Weather Service Coverage Area:Duluth National Weather Service Coverage Area:
Even though that there is not a map of the snowfall from western South Dakota, they saw a tremendous amount of snow as well. Lead received over 4 feet of snow with most of the Black Hills area receiving more then 2 feet. The plains got blasted as well with generally 8-16 inches of snow.

As you can see, this was a far reaching storm and brought many areas over a foot of snow and will go down as the whitest Christmas on record for many areas.

~KDLT Meteorologist Cody Matz

That Much Snow?

So the Christmas storm has past and now we are dealing with the aftermath, SNOW! Many locations saw over 20" of the white stuff the past couple of days and luckily there is not much more forecasted for the next week. The Christmas storm sat over Iowa for over 24 hours and as it did it kept moving snow bands over our area that increased snow totals to a very impressive amount. The map below shows NWS estimates of how much snow roughly fell in a given area.

This map is also from the NWS and is a computer generated map of what snow fall depths currently look like. You can see many areas in South Dakota are over that 20 inch mark (dark blue).

Here are some of the totals seen from the storm:

• Kennebec 24"
• Marion 23.5"
• Sisseton 22.9"
• Sioux City 20.7"
• Yankton 20.5"
• Worthington 20.5"
• Mitchell 19.3"
• Sioux Falls 19"
• Huron 18.6"
• Cherokee 18.5"
• Vermillion 18.1"
• Madison 18"
• Milbank 17"
• Pierre 12"
• Mobridge 11.1"

Many locations broke Christmas records with snowfall totals. Sioux Falls, Sioux City, Yankton and some others saw more snowfall on December 25th then any other December 25th on record. Sioux Falls: this was the 4th largest snow event in the history of record keeping, we were only two inches away from the 2nd spot on the list that occurred back in 1909. The largest ever was 32.2" back in 1962.

~KDLT Meteorologist Dan Bronis

Sunshine, REALLY?

It's been a while since we've seen sunshine around the area and that is what we will start to see come Sunday evening and Monday. That pesky low pressure that sat over Iowa and dumped snow throughout the region (I'll have snowfall totals posted to the blog on Sunday) is finally moving off to the east. High pressure moving in from the West is going to push that low into the Great Lakes region and leave behind it flurries early on Sunday. Then the nicer weather moves in with plenty of sunshine for your Monday and Tuesday.


These are forecast maps of Clouds in the upper and lower atmosphere. The top two images are for upper atmosphere cloud cover (>5,000 feet), clear over South Dakota. The bottom two images are for the lower atmosphere, below 5,000 feet. There may be some clouds, especially for the northeast towns, but overall mostly sunny.

Tuesday we will see mostly sunny skies but overnight things may change. We will introduce a slight chance of some snow, mainly flurries at this point but light accumulation is possible with a system that will brush us to our south. That will be a quick mover and be long gone by Wednesday afternoon. The image below shows light snow in the area on Wednesday morning.

At this point the rest of the week looks mostly to partly clear and temps will slowly dip into the single digits by Friday. Being from Arizona I can take a little break from the snow but would prefer some warmer temperatures at this point, but I do not see that happening anytime soon. Stay Warm and use caution on the roads they are still very slick!

~KDLT Meteorologist Dan Bronis

Whats to Come?

If you look outside and the snow seems to be letting up and the storm appears to over, don't be fooled. There is more snow on its way here and could be quite heavy in some areas. The low pressure that is sitting in western Iowa is going to be throwing more snow in our direction that could add up to an additional 4-8 inches in the east. Here is what the National Weather Service has us getting between now (about noon on Friday) and the end of the day on Saturday.This additional snowfall will be coming out of Minnesota and will move through the area later today and tonight. The next wave of snow will cause the blizzard conditions to continue for the next 24 hours so just sit tight and watch the storm through a window.

~KDLT Meteorologists Jesse Ritka and Cody Matz

Heaps of Snow and Updates

First lets give you an update on travel conditions. Blizzard Warnings remain in effect for the majority of South Dakota which has I-90 closed from Rapid City to the Minnesota border. I-29 is closed from Sioux City to the Canadian border. No travel advisories are shown everywhere else in the red. Check http://www.safetravelusa.com/ for the latest road conditions or call 511, but mainly, just stay home. The Sioux Falls Regional Airport is also closed until Saturday at 10:00am.

Second, here's a look at how much snow many of us woke up to this Christmas morning (keep in mind these are 24 hour totals so it doesn't include the first wave of snow we saw on Wednesday):

According to the National Weather Service, snow reports in the north ranged from two to five inches.

Third, lets take a look at what's going on right now. This is the surface map of current conditions...

The areas in pink are showing really low visibility, you can see there are several notches on the wind barbs, meaning we have some very strong winds kicking up the snow that's falling which gives us those white out conditions. Some places have seen wind gusts as high as 57 miles per hour. Another thing to note on this map is how all the wind barbs seem to circle around one spot in western Iowa. That's where this monster area of low pressure is currently located and it's not going to move much over the next 24 hours. Which means... more snow. (In case you don't know what all those little symbols and numbers mean, here's a quick refresher:

~KDLT Meteorologists Jesse Ritka and Cody Matz

Heavy Snow and Closed Roads

Bands of heavy snow are now working into the state and will become widespread late tonight and through the day tomorrow. Here is what the National Weather Service is watching for the most intense snow the next few hours.Interstates are now being closed and will now stay closed until further notice. I-90 is closed from Chamberlain to the Minnesota state line and I-29 is closed throughout the entire state border to border.

Even if roads are not officially closed, don't expect to travel too far because winds will continue to whip around the snow and we could see drifts two to three feet high by tomorrow morning alone. My suggestion would be to just stay where you are and try to have a positive attitude about the storm. Happy Holidays!!!

~KDLT Meteorologist Cody Matz

Christmas Eve "Lull" - Don't be Fooled!

So many of you woke up this morning to 2 to 5 inches of fresh snow... a few moderate snow showers are still pushing through our viewing area, but nothing compared to what's to come, so don't let the lighter snow right now fool you into taking a longer drive to go visit family. The snow will ramp up again this evening just as many are expected to head to evening church services. Check out our closing ticker to see if your services have been cancelled.

If you look down in Texas and in Oklahoma, you can see all the snow and moisture that's on the way for tonight and into Christmas morning. That's the real part of the storm - the snow we saw last night was just the leading edge of this powerful storm. Those really dark blues are intense snowfall rates, so we're going to see those move up here and spread out tonight and into Friday. This system is really quite large and powerful and it's going to bring all that snow we've been talking about. It will definitely be one to remember and several snowfall records may be broken from this storm. Here's a look at what the National Weather Service put together to take a look back at the current records for Christmas:

Try and stay off the roads to have a safe holiday!

~KDLT Meteorologist Jesse Ritka

Why Are We Going to Get So Much Snow?

This storm could go down in the record books. If the storm slows anymore and we end up receiving the amounts that are on the high end of our forecasted spectrum. IF that were to happen, and I stress IF, then we could be making history. Everyone keeps talking about how dangerous this storm is, and its going to dump tremendous amounts of snow, and have ridiculous winds, and its going to........etc. I'm sure everyone gets sick and tired of hearing that, the general over exaggeration of an approaching storm. But what exactly makes this storm different? Why is THIS storm going to bring us all that snow and not all the other ones that have passed through. Well, the answer is quite complicated but I will make it as easy as possible.

The major ingredients for a big snow event are heat (a relative term of course), moisture, lift, and a long duration. Well heat this time of year is definitely relative. But the heat source for storms this time of the year either comes from the sub tropical jet stream (the river of air way up in the atmosphere that carries a lot of heat and moisture) and the sun, for obvious reasons. We have that, u will just have to take my word for it.

Moisture is typically the hardest component to find this time of the year because the cold polar air makes its way down from Canada and its typically very very dry. But this time we have an abundance of moisture. If you have made it outdoors over the last 2 or 3 days, you will have noticed something very quickly......fog. In order for fog to form, your dew point (an easy measurement to determine moisture in the atmosphere) has to be really close to your temperature. If it is close, you can get fog to form and that shows that there is a lot of moisture in the atmosphere. So, if you look at the current surface map below, notice the green numbers (dew point) and the red numbers (temperature) are really close together.

The third component is lift. Basically you get lift from an area of low pressure. Well what do you know, we have one of those nearby. Take a look below.

Now notice that we not only have one area of low pressure that's going to go by, but we have two, as you can see by the arrows. That's where we get our last component; long duration. The first low will weaken and go by us by tomorrow afternoon. But the second low will begin its trek toward the state and then begin to stall out nearby. That will keep all of these components in our neck of the woods through Saturday which will keep the snow around until then too. Look at the forecasted track of the second low.This is a forecast for the location of a low pressure at 12 hours increments. Each color has its own 12 hour window. Also notice that once the low pressure gets nearby it begins to stall. You can see this by counting the amount of lows around South Dakota. Each low represents a 12 hour time frame. Meaning that the low will be spinning its wheels in Iowa for 36 hours and rotating snow in our direction over and over again. This is the duration that I was talking about. So, we have forecasted ALL four ingredients for a major snow storm and that's why we are talking about so much snow. Now keep in mind that the longer that low stays in Iowa, the more snow we will get. So the totals you see on the news are not set in concrete because things can and do change. However, based on the information given to us, it looks good for large amounts of snow, so enjoy!!!

~KDLT Meteorologist Cody Matz

Winter Storm On Track And Approaching

Here's a look at where the storm is right now:Just like we've been expecting, the storm is on track to take out it's furry on us. It still looks like we'll be seeing 10 plus inches along the eastern side of the state and lighter amounts out to the west. We've also been talking a lot about the winds with this system that will keep the fallen snow in the air and reduce visibilities during the entire life of this storm. That's why we've got all these winter storm warnings (pink) in effect starting this afternoon. The National Weather Service extended these warnings through Saturday as well, so it's going to continue bringing the snow and winds through Christmas Day night. We're also dealing with freezing drizzle this morning in the SE section of our viewing area - so winter weather advisories (purple) are valid from now until noon, so expect rough road conditions this morning if you head out. That's the update for now... snow totals still look similar to what Cody and I have been saying the past few days... grab some extra groceries, fill up your gas tank and make sure you just take all precautionary steps before this storm hits because you will NOT want to be stuck in this storm.

More updates later on this Christmas Grinch of a storm,
~KDLT Meteorologist Jesse Ritka

Yikes!!

The projected storm that is on it's way toward South Dakota is still expected to be a doozey. 10-15 inches of snow is expected to be widespread across at least the eastern third of South Dakota and the western half of Minnesota. Every time we turn around, another model is slapping us in the face with ridiculous amounts of snow. So after all of this, we analyze and make our predictions. But us TV meteorologists aren't the only ones doing the forecasting. There are several expert agencies that produce forecasts in different ways. You generally here about the National Weather Service (NWS) but I like to look at every one's forecast. Here is one such forecast that comes from the precipitation experts at the Climate Prediction Center. They actually forecast a little differently and use probabilities to tell their story. So here they are! Its a little lengthy but will give you an idea of how our forecasts are influenced.

The probability of getting at least 4 inches of snow from 6pm Wednesday through 6pm Thursday:

The probability of getting at least 8 inches in the same time frame:

The probability of getting at least 12 inches in the same time frame:The probability of getting at least 4 inches of snow from 6pm Thursday through 6pm Friday:The probability of getting at least 8 inches in the same time frame:

The probability of getting at least 12 inches in the same time frame:
The probability of getting at least .25 inches of icing from 6pm Tuesday through 6pm Wednesday:The probability of getting at least .25 inches of icing from 6pm Wednesday through 6pm Thursday:Now you have an idea of just some of the components we look at to create a forecast. So here is my forecast!Hope everyone has a safe holiday and enjoy the snow!!!

~KDLT Meteorologist Cody Matz

Brace Yourself

Like Cody said, things are just going to go downhill from Wednesday on, so if you can head out early on those Christmas family trips, do so today! The closer we get to having this storm occur, the worse and worse the models look. So since Cody bumped up my snow forecast due to the continuation of how bad this storm looks, and I'm doing the same thing for the same reason, some models are even giving us 17-20 inches of snow, I think those models are a bit high, but it's not completely out of the question. It really looks like the gulf is going to open up to provide a whole lot of moisture to our entire region. There could even be flooding in some portions of Iowa and Missouri due to all the rain they are going to get. Things are just not going to be good for travelers, especially those heading to Nebraska and to Minnesota because that's the progression of this storm. To show just how big of a system this is going to be and how broad it's going to span... here's a look at all of the watches and warnings around the nation for this system already:

I expect the National Weather Service to add even more winter storm warnings into the rest of Nebraska, portions of Iowa and into Minnesota over the next 24 hours. And with winds expected to be in the 25-35mph range, so I wouldn't be shocked to see near white out conditions to make it feel more like a blizzard through Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. Thus why Cody and I are urging you to travel today if you can at all. Maybe even stay an extra day after Christmas Day just to let the sky and road conditions clear up. This system is definitely capable of causing several accidents on the roads for those who go out, please make sure you have water, food, blankets and extra clothing and a winter survival kit in your car if you MUST travel during this storm. And keep that cell phone charged!

Stay safe during this storm, and catch Cody's forecast at 5, 6 and 10 tonight for more updates on this imminent storm.

~KDLT Meteorologist Jesse Ritka

That Much Snow?? Really??

Ok, so I know we have all heard this story before so I completely understand if you don't believe it yet. However, with all of the models trending towards South Dakota, all of the moisture that will be in place, and how vigorous the low is projected to be, it looks like excellent chances of seeing anywhere from 6-15 inches of snow! Yikes!! This probably could be the worst timing for many because everyone is trying to get somewhere for Christmas. Well all I can say is leave early. If you can leave tomorrow (Tuesday) then do it. Because Starting Wednesday the weather really goes down hill for much of the Upper Midwest. The next few images are expected snowfall totals from different models and agencies in the U.S. followed by my own.

Anticipated snowfall by Model 1 through Saturday afternoon:

Anticipated snowfall by Model 2 through Thursday morning:Anticipated snowfall by the National Weather Service through Friday night:Probability of at least 4 inches of snow from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon:Probability of at least 4 inches of snow from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday afternoon.My forecast:

I did end up going on the conservative side of things, according to all of the data you see above. But, as you know, we have seen this type of system before and we never seem to get the snowfall we are expecting. Now, even if the models were over doing it and my prediction holds true, that's still a lot of snow and travel would still be treacherous. So make sure that if you are planning on going somewhere for the holidays (even if its down the street) have a back up plan just in case things get dicey.

~KDLT Meteorologist Cody Matz