Is the last 4 months of weather any indication to whats going to happen next??

The last couple of years have really been quite something across the state; from record breaking snowfall in the Black Hills this past winter to two back to back unusually cold summers. Two very wet springs in a row, the coldest and wettest October on record just one month ago, and now what could be the warmest November on record. We have almost seen it all in the last couple of years but are there any indications of whats to come in the future? There could be. Meteorologists try to take into account absolutely everything when making a forecast, from soil temperature, to sun angle, to the amount of mixing, to sunshine, to climatology, we literally try to look at everything. Well there is one thing that can often lead us to the right direction, and the answer may more simplistic then you think. A Pattern! Just like everything else that we know of, the atmosphere goes through cycles. There are several that we know will happen every year, the change in seasons, tornadoes, hurricanes, monsoon, and even nor'easters, they all have a specific pattern they follow. That's often how they are not forecasted, both when they will occur and where they occur. Some are obviously more precise then others. But we can also find some less obvious patterns. Take for instance the last four months in Sioux Falls. The month of November has been extremely warm, October was extremely cold, September was above average, and August was below average. Are we seeing a pattern?? The months seem to be switching back and forth like clockwork, one will be cold and the next will be warm. Here are the numbers.

November: Average Monthly Temperature: 41.8

Departure from Average: +10.0

October: Average Monthly Temperature: 42.4

Departure from Average: -5.6

September: Average Monthly Temperature: 63.4

Departure from Average: +2.5

August: Average Monthly Temperature: 68.0

Departure from Average: -2.8

So, now the question remains, will this pattern continue? Well, The KDLT weather team thought it probably would. Well, lets see if we are on the right track. And all you have to do to see if we are is look at the first week of temperatures for December on one of the forecasting models You will likely figure out that the pattern will continue, at least for a while. Check it out.

850mb Temperatures for Monday (the last day of November):

Tuesday (The first day of December):Wednesday:Thursday:So you get the idea. But what about the long term, say next week? Here you go!

Next Wednesday:

If this model were to come true for next Wednesday, then these 850mb temperatures would likely spell highs right around zero. Yikes!! So it looks like the pattern will continue, well at least for the near future. But will it be that cold for the whole month? I guess we will just have to wait and see!!

~KDLT Meteorologist Cody Matz