"Slice" Through Storms

Watching some storms tonight - so far no severe storms but some tall clouds with small hail as a possibility.

We'll be watching - and make sure you send us your rainfall totals and any pictures you snap to weather@kdlt.com.

Have a good night!

~KDLT Chief Meteorologist Aaron Shaffer

Big Changes Coming In Your Weather

We've been watching this storm develop over the last few days... and it is finally close to its arrival.



You can see through this 4 second video clip below what kind of future rainfall our Futurecast computer models are seeing in our neck of the woods Thursday through Friday night.

After the rain is all said and done (and the chilly winds we'll be seeing of 10-20mph for most of us) we'll be looking at some decent amounts of accumulated rainfall. Look at this video clip below showing the progression of rainfall totals through the next 48 hours or so:

So - with all of that being said - make sure you bundle up and get your rain gear ready. You can see it won't rain *constantly* - but a good chunk of the day will consist of rain vs. no rain.

Have a good night!

~KDLT Chief Meteorologist Aaron Shaffer

Windy and Rainy Times Ahead

We have been talking about this upcoming storm system for the last several days and it looks like it will have a pretty big impact on the state with high winds, rain, cool temperatures, and even some snow for the Black Hills. The vigorous low pressure will push through the state tomorrow and Friday providing many areas with over an inch of rain. But, we will be watching where the dry slot ends up. Aaron has mentioned the dry slot before, well the forecast model that seems to have the best handle on the storm system, takes the dry slot all the way through the state with time. Notice below how it starts out in central South Dakota and then progresses its way to the east as the low pressure does.

Thursday Morning:

Thursday Afternoon:
Friday Morning:

Friday Afternoon:Looks like all areas will see a couple different rounds of rainfall with this system. But its not only the rain but the winds will be a bit of an issue as well. High wind watches and warnings have already been issued for areas from Winner and Mission westward to the Black Hills.

Probability of sustained winds exceeding 25 mph Thursday afternoon:
Winds could gust over 65mph. Not quite as windy out in eastern South Dakota, expecting winds from 10-25mph. But with temperatures struggling to get out of the 40's at times, it will be a chilly and raw couple of days.

~KDLT Meteorologist Cody Matz

Rain & Wind Comes Wednesday-Friday

First we start with the winds - already picking up in some spots as I write this to around 25mph sustained, gusts over 30mph... that continues for tomorrow.

Then comes the showers. Most of us will see rain hold off until overnight Wednesday to Thursday morning. Some showers could turn into thunderstorms, so we'll be watching those. In general the bulk of the storm will fall as just rain - with rain hanging around through Thursday and through Friday. You might remember something we talked about on the KDLT Weather Blog recently called the dry slot - make sure you watch this system because there will likely be one.

Here is what our Futurecast computer model is thinking about this upcoming storm system as far as total rainfall goes through Thursday night:

Not overly impressive, but remember that is only an estimate and only goes through the first half of the storm system. We'll have more on that system tomorrow.

Have a good night!

~KDLT Chief Meteorologist Aaron Shaffer

More On That Large End-Of-Week Storm

You'll be hearing a lot about this next storm system making its way in - and that is for a reason. This one looks to be kind of a doozy...

You may want to play this one through a couple of times. That is one computer model's idea of how things will play out Thursday to Friday. Unfortunately for you (if you have any outdoor plans or travel plans) that is a computer model we trust quite often... so stay tuned! We'll have many more updates between now and then.

~KDLT Chief Meteorologist Aaron Shaffer

Windy Today But Big Storm on the Way??

Another windy one today after wind gusts topped 50 mph in many locations yesterday. Winds likely sustained anywhere from 15-35 mph today. That is proven by the image below which shows the sustained winds at 3pm this afternoon.A nice but cool day is expected tomorrow but it does look like a big storm is brewing for later in the week. This storm will likely make its entrance overnight Wednesday and stay around for a couple of days. The Hydrological Prediction Center posted this forecast for Thursday morning through Saturday morning. The image below shows that many areas of South Dakota can expect 2+ inches of rain in that time period. So enjoy the sunshine while it's here because the end of the week looks to be quite wet.

~KDLT Meteorologist Cody Matz

Leafnadoes . . . Huh?

There's no doubt in anybody's mind that it was a blustery day today . . . with wind gusts over 50mph in some cities, and sustained winds ranging between 25-40 miles per hour... there was really just no hiding from the wind if you stepped outside at all today. And while those winds may be wicked... they make quite the sight in the yard during the fall. The winds are essential to leafnadoes...
Now exactly what IS a leafnado... Well you just have to dissect the word a bit. Leaf... well, that's pretty self explanatory... Now: nado... this is the suffix of "tornado" so basically a leafnado is a swirling vortex of leaves. A very common sight on days like today. Here's a YouTube video of a leafnado someone caught... it's a bit bright, but you can kind of see it near the end of the video. I didn't coin the term... but it was a common term we used when I was in college. A good friend of mine from ISU wrote about these last year, here's his definition (thanks to the the Rockford weather blog) : "You've probably seen leaves and other small debris briefly swirling around before, typically near an inside corner to a building. Those are leafnadoes! Of course, it's a non-technical term and hardly anything to take seriously, but when I was at Iowa State, we would joke about leafnadoes every fall." (I grabbed this picture from his blog - Thanks JG if you're reading!)

Kind of a fun thing to talk about when it comes to winds - the non-destructive kind sweeping the light, fall-colored leaves against the blue sky in a swirling symphony. I love fall - can you tell?

If you don't like the leafnadoes... just sit tight one more day, Monday will still be a windy day, just not as blustery. High pressure builds in by Tuesday, so we'll get a bit of relief from the winds then.

Enjoy the sights!

~KDLT Meteorologist Jesse Ritka

Bow Hunting Opener Saturday & Winds Returning Sunday

So we'll start out with the good news -and talk more about the bow hunting opener and the lack of winds we'll be seeing the rest of tonight and into the day tomorrow...

Not a bad day out there at all this Saturday. In between noon and sunset you can see some middle 70s to the East and lower 80s to the West. Again - no wind to be concerned about toward the East at all, look at this map showing future winds starting Friday night:

You see how the arrows are all tiny & hard to see? That is the sign of good amounts of wind - nearly none. Watch what happens when we get to Sunday night at around 7pm...

Quite a change, eh? Well by Sunday late afternoon we are looking for winds around 20-30mph sustained around the area, so get ready to hang on to your hat! We cool down significantly to start out the week on Monday as well.

Have a good night, and be sure to enjoy this Saturday!

~KDLT Chief Meteorologist Aaron Shaffer

When Will This System Move Out?

We've been getting a lot of people wondering just when this pesky storm system with its on-again off-again showers & thick clouds is going to leave us alone. The answer to that lies in this video below from our Futurecast computer models:

While things may not pan out *exactly* as this movie would indicate - something close to that really wouldn't be a stretch. You can see showers moving in Friday morning and then moving out by Friday night.

The clearing shows up by Saturday late morning to early afternoon. Look at the possible temperatures as a result as well:

See those middle 70s? Those could be what we see for Saturday's highs assuming that clearing moves in fast enough.

Here's to that!

~KDLT Chief Meteorologist Aaron Shaffer

Trading Clouds For Wind

The fairly active weather pattern continues today with a few showers across the area, especially in the southeast. One shower is headed for Sioux Falls as I write this. Well, looks like we will see additional showers this afternoon with the "heating" that will take place. Of course, that's only a relative term because it won't be all that hot. The low responsible for the clouds and showers still looks like it will hang around through Saturday morning and then finally kick it's way out of here. But what I mean by the title of this blog is that we will get rid of the clouds and showers on Sunday and Monday but it may not be all that nice of a day. Looks like the roaring fall winds will be returning to South Dakota for the latter half of your weekend. A cold front will likely swing it's way through the area on Sunday. Behind it, cooler weather will fly in.... literally. The image below shows the wind speeds behind the cold front on Sunday evening whipping upwards of 40 knots at 850mb. Even though these winds are a good 4000-5000 feet above the surface, with the potential for really good mixing occurring on Sunday, these winds could find their way down to the surface. This means that we could be dealing with 50+ mph gusts at the surface.

So, when we finally get some good sunshine, the winds will be raging. So I guess you have to pick YOUR lesser of two evils to find a good day in the near future; clouds or wind? The choice is yours!

~KDLT Meteorologist Cody Matz

Friends By Sky

If you watch KDLT with any regularity, especially over the past week or so, you've probably noticed we've had some "friends" on our KDLT Skycam recently. Last week, it was the wasps - and this week it is a much more pleasant species: birds.

You can see we had about a minute worth of fun with these guys - with thick clouds as the backdrop. Big changes sky condition-wise from what we saw earlier in the day with some sunshine.

Meandering Low

The area of low pressure that's been spinning about and is responsible for the clouds and the cooler temperatures the last couple of days doesn't look to exit the region anytime soon. In fact, we may not be able to wave bye bye to that low until sometime this weekend giving us a cloudy and somewhat wet end to the work week. Here is a look at where the low pressure will be located over the next few days.

Wednesday Morning:

Thursday Morning:Friday Morning:Saturday Morning:

Once that low pressure swings out of our area, abundant sunshine will return. But things don't look all that warm as another cold front looks to make its way in by Monday that has the potential to give areas of South Dakota its first frost. We will keep you updated as we get closer.

~KDLT Meteorologist Cody Matz

Crazy Weather Trend Continues

We've been watching all sorts of crazy weather conditions over the past 48-60 hours - and many of you have probably heard about the snow in Colorado, or the fires in southern California - but have you heard about the massive amounts of rain falling near Atlanta, GA?

We've heard some reports of rainfall totals upwards of 15 to 18 INCHES of rain! That is incredible. We've barely had 15 inches of rainfall total in our area this whole year.

We'll be watching that - and talking more about the cooler weather over the next couple of days on our KDLT Weather Blog.

Have a good night!

~KDLT Chief Meteorologist Aaron Shaffer

Frost Advisories . . . Creeping Closer To Us

Well I mentioned it yesterday morning even though I didn't want to... they got some snow showers over in Casper and in Denver. It seems way to early to be talking about snow to me but I'm sure I just feel like that because we were so spoiled last week with the weather being above average. Yesterday and today definitely brought me back to reality that it IS September. Though temperatures aren't supposed to be this chilly, we're supposed to have highs in the low 70s instead of in the low 60s. There are actually frost advisories in North Dakota for tonight, could be an early frost for them with clear skies tonight (the counties shaded in blue). But these clouds that are blocking out the sun and keeping away the warmer temperatures are also acting like a blanket for us at night and making sure our temperatures don't drop below 40 degrees . . . good news for all the farmers and folks with gardens out there.

Keep warm... temperatures will eventually rebound, though I have to admit, I am a big fan of the sweater weather!

~KDLT Meteorologist Jesse Ritka

It's Cold Outside! How Much More Rain?

Well - we are definitely aware of the major changes that have come in the weather department. After 8 days in a row of nearly perfect conditions, we saw some major changes arrive overnight.

Look at this video we made showing just how much rainfall we are looking for out of our Futurecast computer model:

You can see all of the green shaded areas basically showing the best chances for accumulating rainfall. You'll likely see that pocket of no rainfall in eastern SD get filled in a little bit, while the brighter green areas will likely be tempered a bit. Also - you are probably wondering what the deal is with the cold temperatures... If you didn't watch us on KDLT on Friday night, you would have missed our video of where the jetstream is/will be. Look at this one to see what is actually happening outside:

Take a moment and check out our blog post showing the jetstream from Friday night - and compare to now. Big changes out there - and that pocket showing up right over our area is a cold dip in the jetstream... we don't kick that out for a couple of days, so stay tuned!

~KDLT Chief Meteorologist Aaron Shaffer

Major Cool Down!

Those showers that passed through earlier this morning are going to leave cool temperatures hanging around our region. High temperatures are going to be nearly 10 degrees BELOW where they should be this time of year... what a difference from yesterday when high temperatures were nearly 10 degrees ABOVE where they should be.

You can also see there are some rather strong northwesterly winds that will only make things feel cooler outdoors. We've been spoiled with the southerly winds keeping our temperatures above average but the reality is that Fall officially begins on Tuesday, and there's no doubt that it will feel like it.

If you miss the 70s, just hold on until Wednesday when the 70s and sunshine return!

~KDLT Meteorologist Jesse Ritka

Fine Weather and Some Fantasy Football

Another beautiful day today and we'll see basically a repeat of today for the forecast for tomorrow. Plenty of sunshine, temperatures above average for this time of year, and winds picking up in the afternoon. Our focus then switches to Sunday night, late, we'll see a cold front progress across the state which will slowly bring some rainshowers and thunderstorms across the state from West to East. Some places may see upwards of a half an inch of much needed rainfall by the time this system exits our area on Tuesday. Here's a look at how much one particular model is predicting for the next 3 days:

Keep in mind, that's just one particular model...

I'm personally kind of sad that it'll be so nice tomorrow since it is such a big NFL day. It's my first time ever playing in a fantasy football league (playing with people at KDLT), and tomorrow's a big day since my team is playing against Aaron Shaffer and he has Adrian Peterson . . . I'm a bit nervous. I'm just going to put our matchup on here, feel free to predict who you think will win between the two of us, I think that'll be fun to see.

In case you were wondering . . . my team is "GolfBallSizeHailMary" . . . nerd? Yes, I know :)

Enjoy the rest of the weekend!

~KDLT Meteorologist Jesse Ritka

Incoming Storm For Next Week

We've been talking a lot about the storm on the way this coming Sunday night to Monday morning. We made a special graphic for the blog - and check it out:

If you look closely you can see some lines that line up with the rotating "L" (low pressure system symbol). It doesn't look like it's in a hurry to go anywhere. In fact, it looks like we will see what is known as a "cut-off low" form.

The other big change will be temperature-wise. Over the past 6 days we've seen the jetstream centered over central Canada - leaving us nice and warm. It's going to change soon - check out this video below:

We'll still stay warm through Sunday - but cooler air will creep in behind that dip in the jetstream at the end of that video clip.

Enjoy this weekend's warmth, but don't get caught off guard by the breezy conditions!

~KDLT Chief Meteorologist Aaron Shaffer

How Would You Like A 20 Foot Python In Your Backyard?

With all of the calm weather we're seeing lately... we had to look long and hard to find something blog-worthy besides more discussion of our incoming storm for Monday. We were looking at the videos on NBC's website that we have the rights to post on the weather blog, and came across an interesting story of "discovery."

We'll be posting much more about the big cooldown on the way for next week - but for now just plan on getting outside and enjoying things before we cool down and get windier.

~KDLT Chief Meteorologist Aaron Shaffer

Warmer In September Than August?

Have you noticed how warm it's felt recently? Mostly likely, the answer to that question is a simple "Yes!" We've been noticing in here too - in fact, I made it out to the golf course today (in case you don't know this, I have just started top play this year and am still very bad at it). While many of the hits were bad - I did get my first birdie ever... hitting the ball from about 40 yards out with my pitching wedge right into the hole!


Anyhow... about that warmth... We tabulated the data and came up with a few interesting statistics:

Not including today's warm high, we've seen an average high of 77.1 degrees for the month of September. Our average high for today is 74. The big story comes when you compare the past 8 days of September to the entire month of August.

It's been 0.2 degrees warmer so far these last 8 days than what is typically our 2nd warmest month of the year. Hopefully we can keep it up while we wait for that next cooldown to come in. We'll be talking much more about *that* over the next few days!

Have a good night!

~KDLT Chief Meteorologist Aaron Shaffer

We aren't the only ones seeing the cooldown

Since there isn't a whole lot to talk about for this weeks weather other then warm, dry, and sunny, I will focus again on the cool down for next week. As Aaron and I have talked about the last couple of days, cooler weather is looking more and more like a reality for next week as all of the longer ranged forecast models show a cooling trend and even some "experts" in the field are getting involved. The fantastically knowledgeable forecasters at the Climate Prediction Center even think it will be a cool week next week as their most recent forecast highlights the fact that much of next week and weekend will be much colder then average across a good chunk of the Upper Midwest.So enjoy the summer like weather because it looks like fall will start with bang.

~KDLT Meteorologist Cody Matz

Big Cooldown On The Way... With Snow?

We're watching this next cooldown for next week with an extra-careful eye. Cody Matz talked about the big cooldown on the way for early next week in the post below - but look at this map below very carefully:

See all of those lines? Those are different "thicknesses" in the atmosphere that indicate regions of freezing or cooler temperatures. That's what we look at when forecasting snow... and they are over eastern South Dakota and Minnesota and even into northern Iowa by next Wednesday. That could mean some possible flurries by Wednesday - but don't worry, averages and records are on your side if you want snow to stay away.

We talked with some other meteorologists from the National Weather Service offices both in Sioux Falls and in Aberdeen, and here are some of the earliest stories of snowfall and reports we've come across:

One meteorologist in Aberdeen told me about September 23, 1984:

Snow fell from the early morning to the late evening hours across northwest South Dakota bringing more than a foot of snow to some locations. Camp Crook in Harding County reported 14 inches. Amounts between six and twelve inches were common across Harding and Perkins Counties as well as parts of Meade and Butte counties. Roads in these areas were slushy with icy bridges. The snow covered much of the western third of South Dakota with depths generally an inch or less.

While not quite stories farther to the South, here are some early snowfall dates and totals for the southern half of the viewing area:

1. Huron on 9/18/1924 got a trace of snowfall.
2. Sioux Falls on 9/18/1929 got a trace of snowfall
3. Sioux City on 9/25/1939 got a trace of snowfall
4. Brookings on 9/19/1991 got a trace of snowfall

Hopefully this doesn't happen. While I can't create my own weather conditions, I can only forecast them - you can rest assured I'll be sending all of my positive thoughts to keep any snow away until hopefully late November or even more preferably early December.

Have a good night!

~KDLT Chief Meteorologist Aaron Shaffer

Warm Now....Cooler Next Week??

Warm and dry weather looks to persist across the state for the next few days and this is because a huge ridge of high pressure has moved its way into the central United States. Because of this, the jet stream has been shoved way north into Canada and it looks like it will stay there into the weekend. The jet stream is important because it's the river of air in the upper levels of the atmosphere that is the stearing current for storm systems.

The jet stream today:

The jet stream on Friday:But one of the long range models does have this ridge breaking down by Monday which could bring our first taste of fall air into the region.

The jet stream on Monday:

This is something we will have to watch through the week and we will keep you updated.

~KDLT Meteorologist Cody Matz

Warm - And Dry - Start To The Week

We've been tracking the amount of rainfall in Sioux Falls & vicinity. Things are slowly adding up as far as rainfall deficits go. We should be at almost 20 inches of rainfall on the year - and here is what we're seeing so far:

We're almost 5 inches below average - and this is without much, if any, rainfall in the forecast over the next few days. On average we should be adding about 0.09" of rainfall per day - so we'll be likely adding over half an inch of rain to the deficit by the start of next week.

The good news for people who don't want rain, and not for anyone needing rain, is that things are looking warmer for the start of this week. Check out a screenshot from our Futurecast computer model:

Warmer weather sticks around - and that cold front you see drawn on that map represents our best chance for some showers toward mid to late-week.

Have a nice evening!

~KDLT Chief Meteorologist Aaron Shaffer

Cutoff Low Shifting West

The low pressure that is responsible for the clouds and rain over the last 48 hours is beginning to make a move westward. I realize that sounds weird since our weather typically moves from west to east but this low is cutoff from the jet stream (the river of air high up in the atmosphere that controls where storms will move) and that is causing this low pressure to move in any direction it wants. Well its finally going to move out of our area for the latter half of your Sunday. When that happens, southerly winds will kick in and our temperatures look to remain above average most of next week. You can see the warm up on the 850mb charts below.

Sunday:

Monday:Tuesday:So looks like fall temperatures are going to hold off for at least a few more days. Enjoy!!

~KDLT Meteorologist Cody Matz

In The "Dry Slot" - But What Is It?

Here is a view of our visible satellite from 5pm - and look at what we can see:

Sunshine during this massive storm system? That's right. It's because of something we call a "dry slot" and it happens quite often in these parts. They make what would otherwise be the right forecast slightly off - and are predictable only in that they will form.

A quick peek at the National Weather Service's glossary reveals this definition:

Dry Slot
A zone of dry (and relatively cloud-free) air which wraps east- or
northeastward into the southern and eastern parts of a synoptic scale or
mesoscale low pressure system. A dry slot generally is seen best on satellite
photographs.

So there you go - and that dry slot will be shifting slightly south and west over the next 24 hours as this strong, but disorganized, system moves to the West.

Check back on the weather blog over the weekend to find out more about this system!

~KDLT Chief Meteorologist Aaron Shaffer

Futurecast... Rain & Temperatures For This Weekend

We have some new tools in our KDLT Weather Center - some of which you've seen, and some of which you'll see eventually. In this post we kind of combine both - and made 2 versions of our Futurecast map using the same lows and fronts but with one showing rainfall & clouds, and one showing future temperatures...

This is what we are looking at

You can see the rain overhead Friday night - and that is after a few little batches throughout the day. Look at this map showing temperatures, then, for Saturday night:

We tightened up the temperature scale on here to make the changes in temperature more obvious - and you can see in the area some big contrasts from our viewing area to the Minneapolis-area and western Wisconsin.

Right now we're still looking for lower 70s for the most part on Saturday - and some areas struggling to reach the upper 60s farther toward the West.

Have a good night!

~KDLT Chief Meteorologist Aaron Shaffer

Where Will the Low Go?

We have been watching a brewing storm system on our forecasting models for the last 3 days and the models continue to struggle with what exactly will happen this weekend. It all stems around exactly where this cutoff low will go. Because it is a cutoff low (a low that is literally cutoff from the steering current in the atmosphere) it is very hard to determine where exactly the low will end up. The good news is that the models are trending to push the low a little bit further west which would keep things warmer and a bit drier over our area. Here is where one of yesterdays models put the low on Saturday evening.Now look at today's forecast model. It has the position of the low Saturday evening a bit further to the west.

Some adjustments may still have to be made in the forecast because of this unique situation so just check back with us before the weekend and we should know some more information.

~KDLT Meteorologist Cody Matz

Storms & Cooling Comes Friday

We are seeing a pretty calm night out there so far - with some showers that formed around mainly southwestern Minnesota as the only blips on the radar maps... but that will really start to change as we head toward Friday and Saturday.

You can see in that screenshot of a map we just showed on-air that by Friday night our Futurecast computer model has rain and a cold front right over us. We'll look for showers to actually start early on in the day toward the West - with those showers fairly speedily moving farther toward the East by the afternoon.

Then we get 60s & 70s again for highs this weekend. We'll leave that for another post and wish you a good night!

~KDLT Chief Meteorologist Aaron Shaffer

Video Of Today's Storms South Of Pierre

Storms south of Pierre:



That video was sent in to us from a loyal KDLT viewer in that area. Zach sends us a lot of good stuff, so hopefully he'll continue to and you will continue to watch!

~KDLT Chief Meteorologist Aaron Shaffer

Storms Today... More To Come

We've been watching some storms out there today...

This was our first severe thunderstorm warning of the day toward mid-afternoon.

You can see it was near south-central South Dakota - and moving slowly. Here is our future radar from about now until 7:15pm - it will be interesting to see where it ends up and just how closely reality matches our future radar:

Still far away from Sioux Falls by 7:15pm - but it'll come eventually by the overnight hours toward the far southeast.

Have a good night!

~KDLT Chief Meteorologist Aaron Shaffer

Los Angeles Fire Timelapse

You often see a timelapse of the sunset or something like that on KDLT with our skycam. How about a timelapse of a fire closing in on your house? That is something that hopefully none of us will ever see - but has been happening to people in southern California.

Here is a timelapse I found on YouTube of that exact thing:



Pretty impressive & scary. Hopefully we never see anything like that around the area.

We'll be watching for storms tonight, so if anything happens stay tuned to KDLT and our KDLT Weather Blog and we'll keep you informed.

~KDLT Chief Meteorologist Aaron Shaffer

Stormy Tonight

Cold front will work its way into South Dakota today which will cause showers and storms to develop later this afternoon. Storms have fired up this morning across the northeast but that was from a little impulse out in front of the main storm system so the heaviest rain is still yet to come. Some spots could pick up quite a bit as well as this cold front will be slow moving. The Hydrological Prediction Center (HPC) has widespread areas receiving an inch or more of rainfall with this system through 7am tomorrow morning.With the heavy rain could be some severe weather as well, something we haven't talked much about over the last few weeks. The Storm Prediction Center did issue a slight risk for severe weather over much of eastern South Dakota and parts of far western Minnesota. I'm not expecting a widespread outbreak but don't be surprised to see a few warnings that may pop up later today and tonight for some large hail and damaging winds.

~KDLT Meteorologist Cody Matz

Showers Tomorrow - How Much & When? Plus, More On That Cool Weekend

It's a busy day on the KDLT Weather Blog. You probably read Cody's post introducing you to a cool weekend ahead... and tonight we talk more about the rain coming and how that will eventually lead to a chilly weekend.

First off - after some more lighter/scattered showers & thunderstorms tonight to the West and to the East by tomorrow morning, we are looking for the main threat of rain and thunderstorms to move in late Tuesday night into early Wednesday:

You can see the showers there by 12:30am - at least according to our new Futurecast computer model. Add or subtract an hour or two from that time, and that is about when you can expect showers and thunderstorms. It seems as though this storm system will slow down and leave us with some decent amounts of accumulations:

That up to 1 inch mark is basically centered around the Mitchell area - but has the potential to shift around a little bit. In general we are looking for most people to pick up around a quarter of an inch, with locally heavier areas picking up closer to 1" of rainfall.

Then we have the chilly weekend. You saw some first glimpses of the cooler air overhead for the weekend in Cody's post below, but look at this image showing possible morning lows for this weekend:

Middle 40s are becoming a little bit too common, but that is a sign of things to come - unfortunately. Our average overnight low for southeastern South Dakota dropped to 51 today, and will continue to drop for a while.

Enjoy the rest of your Labor Day holiday and have a good rest of your week!

~KDLT Chief Meteorologist Aaron Shaffer

Nice Today.... Cool Weekend??

Looks like a nice one today for the most part. Temperatures back into the upper 70's to the upper 80's. We will have to contend with the winds today though, out of the South and Southeast between 15 and 30 mph. Notice a good core of winds across central and eastern South Dakota this afternoon.This will also begin to increase moisture later on today as well with dew points getting into the 60's in spots. This will actually aid in our thunderstorm chances tomorrow and tomorrow night.Now, I realize that many of us are still on our holiday weekends but I wanted to focus a second on the forecast for next weekend because it's looking more and more intriguing. All of the long range models show a pretty intense low pressure diving into the upper Midwest Friday into Saturday which will likely bring unseasonably cool weather to our area. Notice the "bubble" of cold air over the state of South Dakota on Saturday.

This is just one of the long range models but all of them are in astonishing agreement over this trough digging in next weekend. If this forecast holds and if we end up seeing a good deal of cloud cover, some areas may only see highs in the 50's this weekend. So stay tuned through out the week and we will keep you updated!!

~KDLT Meteorologist Cody Matz