Friday, December 12, 2008

Cold Just Doesn't Quite Say It

Cold I think will be an understatement come Monday when high temperatures in much of South Dakota will likely not get above zero. Here are four images in succession. Each are 24 hours apart form each other and start today at noon. Watch the cold air just get pulled into the North Plains. Also, keep in mind that some of the dark and light reds indicate of 25 to 35 degrees below zero.Notice on this last image that the Arctic air has a straight line between us and the North Pole. I like to call this the Polar Express just because its a straight shot from us to the North pole and the cold air will have the least amount of moderation in Temperature. So, bundle up and stay warm come Sunday.

~KDLT Meteorolgist Cody Matz





Thursday, December 11, 2008

Snow... In New Orleans? And A Cold Snap Update

We've sure seen some interesting weather lately... but I think the people of New Orleans probably take the cake in the category of "strangeness." They saw snow today that totaled up to abour SIX inches in some portions of Louisiana! Crazy. I know it's not impossible, but I haven't ever heard of that much snow down that far south.

Here is a picture sent in to KDLT:

I used this to "trick" my co-anchors for the 6pm show tonight. If you don't know any better it looks like any house anywhere, Minnesota, South Dakota, Iowa... Louisiana?

Cold Snap Update...

We really only need to show you one graphic to really depict our big "cooldown" that is coming toward the end of the weekend. It is BIG! We are likely going to see temperatures falling all day long in the Sioux Falls area from a start potentially around 30 degrees to a finish that should put us around ZERO! We might even be below zero by the time you go to bed Sunday.

Look at what the statistical models think highs will be Sunday:

Notice the 25 degree BELOW ZERO temperature over Montana. Now, those temperatures aren't necessarily what we'll see or they'll see, but it'll definitely be somewhere in that neighborhood.

Have a great night!

~KDLT Meteorologist Aaron Shaffer

Ridge Runner

A chance of snow across the Sioux Empire today as we have what we call a ridge runner goin through the state. A ridge runner is basically a small system that comes into a ridge, rides up and over the ridge courtesy of the jet stream, and then back down the other side of the ridge. You can see that by the kink in the pressure lines on this map. I have circled the kink. Here is what this model is forecasting in amount of liquid precipitation.
I think this model is a bit over done on the amounts but a Northwest to Southeast orientated band of snow could definately disperse 1 to 2 inches of snow in some local spots. Looks like the majority of us wont see much if anything at all though so dont get your hopes up if you are counting on the snow. We will continue to update you on the big arctic blast expected next week, so check back in tomorrow.

~KDLT Meteorologist Cody Matz

Wednesday, December 10, 2008

Cold Start To Next Week?

Cody & I have been following some pretty cold temperatures that look to invade our area as we head into the start of this coming week.

Look at this statistical model's forecast for highs into Sunday:

You'll notice highs only in the single digits and close to zero... that is scary stuff, but not unheard of for this year. We're going to be keeping a close eye on just how far south that air is heading. For now we are being fairly cautious due to the long-term forecast nature of this cold air. Make sure to stay tuned to us the next few days on KDLT for the latest forecasts to see just how cold it's going to be next week.

Have a nice night and stay tuned for updates on the potential for snow heading into Thursday afternoon/evening!

~KDLT Meteorologist Aaron Shaffer

Warmer Today....Yay!

Looks like temperatures will actually warm up today from yesterday. We only hit an afternoon high of 16 yesterday in Sioux Falls so it was pretty cold. But today, warmer weather moving west. Already much warmer this morning in the Western South Dakota with temperatures in the 20's and 30's right around sunrise. This map is a surface observation map with current temps (7:30 am) labeled in red.
As you see, much warmer off to the west where parts of Montana are in the 40's! We aren't expecting to get that warm today with the exception of places with very little snow on the ground, like Winner and Valentine, NE, but you can expect 30's across areas of the west and upper 2o's across the east today. Snow cover plays a BIG role in determining temperatures. Typically the more snow on the ground, the harder it is for the temperatures to warm. Here is a map of the current snow cover across the state.Enjoy the warmer temperatures!

~KDLT Meteorologist Cody Matz

Tuesday, December 9, 2008

Another Bone-Chilling Night - And A Radar Tool For You

Get ready for the cold! Hopefully your parka is ready to be worn, or at least some sort of thick jacket and gloves and several hats and scarves... We're going to be closing in on the zero degree mark tonight.

This was a webcam image from the intersection of I-29 and 41st Street in Sioux Falls. It was from just before 6pm, and it was cold already! It even looks cold in this picture... Make sure you are ready for temperatures closing in on zero or even below. It wouldn't surprise me to see a couple reports of 2 or 3 degrees *below* zero for low temperatures.

Radar Stuff...

I was poking around online and found a new site to test out (it is a test site itself, so be warned). It's a radar site with some sort of realistic map background that has the radar on top of it, with tornado warnings and the like on top of that (see screen shot below) and can be found at www.zoomradar.com:

Looks interesting, so if you try it out you can let me know your thoughts. Take care if you're driving tonight anywhere, and get ready for that cold!

~KDLT Meteorologist Aaron Shaffer

Monday, December 8, 2008

Storm Update (7:42pm Monday)...

We're still seeing snow falling outside. I just went for a walk outside for a few blocks in the snow and it is kind of a sleety type of snow. Felt like a million little spears hitting you as you walk in it - especially if the wind blows at all.

It's starting to accumulate though - and we're still looking on track for our 2-3" of snow forecasted during our 6pm show. Some people will see slightly more or less than that range. We're also seeing the snow moving farther toward the Southeast - as expected. As of now the snow ends (on radar) near Bryant and Willow Lake in Clark county.

It seems like this storm is still behaving as predicted, so that is good. We'll update you again if anything changes - you can read the posts below for some earlier information on this storm.

Make sure to watch KDLT News at 10pm tonight for the latest, and then at 6am tomorrow with Cody Matz and Danielle Dupuy to cover any new developments. Drive safely!

~KDLT Meteorologist Aaron Shaffer

Storm Update (6:17pm Monday)...

Right now we're watching as a cold front moving in from the North and a lingering batch of moisture and messiness are colliding over the Sioux Falls area. That will result in some of the heavier bands of snow over extreme eastern/southeastern South Dakota and the rest of the region into southern Minnesota and northwest Iowa. In a lot of these areas 3" with locally heavier areas are not out of the question. Make sure to dial 511 or go to SafeTravelUSA.com/SD/ to check road conditions if you're doing any traveling.

This is our latest radar image from about 6:17pm Monday night:

If you look at those green patches you can see some heavier precipitation showing up. Unfortunately we don't have any true observations from that area, but there is a chance that is heavier snow and we can see it getting wrapped into the eastern South Dakota area and trending east toward NW Iowa. That's what we'll need to watch. Between now and our 10pm show is when we should expect the bulk of our snow to fall in the Sioux Falls area.That image above is from what's known as the RUC model, or the Rapid Update Cycle. It's not quite as accurate, but the computers run through it once every hour. What it is showing us future precipitation and that the computer models are starting to agree with my assessments above - so we'll see if it ends up that way by the end when we start listing snowfall totals. We'll update you on here as necessary - and drive safely!

~KDLT Meteorologist Aaron Shaffer