Halloween Night

We're going to keep this blog posting short and sweet...

Are you wondering what the temperatures will be if you're headed out tonight? You're in luck, then, because this image below will help you plan your evening festivities.

Have a great Halloween!


~KDLT Meteorologist Aaron Shaffer

Colder Next Week?

The forecast through the weekend looks incredibly warm. However, next week looks cooler but exactly how much cooler. With a storm system expected to role through the area in the middle of next week as Aaron mentioned, how strong will the cold front be? Well, one thing we can look at is a ten day forecast for temperatures in Canada. We look at Canada's expected temperatures because the air behind the cold front comes from there and you always want to look upstream to get some hints into what the weather will be like in your area. So here is a map that forecasts whether the temperatures in Canada are expected to be above or below normal over the course of the next ten days.

Well, according to this, much of Canada is expected to be above average over the course of the next ten days. So, if we get colder air to move into the state from Canada, it may be colder then where we are now, but it may not be as cold as it could be this time of the year. Just something to think about. We will keep an eye on it for you and update you with the latest.

KDLT Meteorologist Cody Matz

Snow In The Extended Forecast?

It seems like things are going to be nice and warm for Halloween, so we've switched gears. This big storm coming toward the middle of next week is definitely getting our attention. Thankfully it looks like just a few showers toward Tuesday, otherwise known as election day, but then the real rain comes and even the potential snow. You can see something interesting in this picture below:

If you see what looks like a bunch of lines forming a semi-circle around the Sioux Empire area, you can see some purple over the area as well. The scary part? Those lines represent different layers of the atmosphere that are at or below the freezing mark. The scarier part? Those big purple blobs represent potential model-indicated future precipitation. That means if things pan out the way they might we could end up with some accumulating snow by next Thursday. We'll have to look back on this blog post in a few days to see how things are still looking. Stay tuned!

~KDLT Meteorologist Aaron Shaffer

Stormy Election Day?

No, I'm not talking about a stormy day with regard to election results or voter issues... instead I am talking about the potential for some decent rain on election day Tuesday. We're still up in the air as to the exact timing and the quantity of the rain, but it does look as though we can expect some.

While this storm is still about 6 days out, it's definitely close enough to be concerned about - particularly if this computer model pans out and we end up with close to 1-2 inches of rain. The good news is that as of now it looks like rain and not even a risk of snow. We'll keep our eyes out, though, and also keep our eyes out on the potential for any snow closer toward next weekend.

Have a great night and enjoy the 60s and 70s!

~KDLT Meteorologist Aaron Shaffer

Nice Halloween

A warm halloween is looking more and more like a sure bet. That cold front Aaron and I have been talking about for a couple days now continues to look weaker and weaker as it slides in from Canada. That means that temperatures look warmer for halloween then we thought a couple of days ago. Now, I think 70 degrees might be just out of reach. But the 60's look likely, so get ready for some mild trick or treating. Also, the temperatures for Thursday still look the warmest and Sioux Falls still has a shot at 70 degrees so keep your fingers crossed.

KDLT Meteorologist Cody Matz

Halloween: Warm Or Cold?

Coldest Minimum Temp. Warmest Maximum Temp. Year Date Max Min Precip Year Date Max Min Precip 1949 10/31 57 13 0 1950 10/31 77 40 0 1993 10/31 43 13 0 1990 10/31 76 33 0 1913 10/31 42 15 0 1933 10/31 74 55 0 1917 10/31 38 15 T 1904 10/31 73 38 0 2002 10/31 26 15 0 1999 10/31 72 31 0 2006 10/31 35 16 0 1938 10/31 71 51 0 1996 10/31 34 16 0 1944 10/31 71 43 0 1930 10/31 42 17 0 1915 10/31 70 39 0 1967 10/31 59 18 0 1968 10/31 70 33 0

These statistics show a broad range of temperatures for Halloween in the Sioux Falls area. It looks like we won't be seeing any record lows, as our temperatures still look to be slightly above average (the average high for today is 54 degrees). Look for highs to be at least close to 60s, either in the upper 50s or low 60s.

Cody and I will be keeping our eye on a fairly weak area of colder air trying to make its way into our area for the Halloween time period. That will really govern just how high or low we go for that day.

If you look at eastern South Dakota and western Minnesota you'll see some greens and blues approaching. Those are your colder air regions. It's a fine line right now between warmer and cooler temperatures, so stay tuned. In the meantime, enjoy those potential 70s that Cody mentioned below. Have a great night!

~KDLT Meteorologist Aaron Shaffer

70 degrees in Sioux Falls?

Yes you read correctly, we are talking about the possiblity of actually hitting the 70 degree mark on Thursday. Now, dont get your hopes up because its only a slim possibility at this point. So, why the possibilty you ask? Well, some of the models are showing a couple of different boudaries working through the region at that time, i.e. cold fronts, wind direction changes.....etc. Well, when that happens, with the perfect conditions you can actually get a pooling of warm air out ahead of it. Just like when you stick your hand in a puddle of water and then move your hand, the water will pool up against your hand. The atmosphere can work in the same way. So, the picture below shows that happening along a slight change in wind direction.

This could actually help temperatures climb an extra couple degrees and allow us to hit the magic 70 degree number one more time before winter. Now, I have forecasted us to be a couple degrees shy of 70 for the time being. But if models continue to trend this way then 70 is a real possibility. But if it doesnt happen, then we will be in the upper 60's, which I think we can all live with this time of the year.

KDLT Meteorologist Cody Matz

*NICE* Warm-up On The Way

Sick of winds and cold weather? Well, you're probably at least sick of the winds after gusts around the state ranged from 73mph in Rapid City to 63mph in Mitchell and 59mph in Sioux Falls. After night, as Cody mentioned below this post, you'll likely be sick of cold weather with temperatures likely reaching into the teens overnight. The good news? 60s and even 70s for a few people are on the way for Wednesday, with a day in the 50s before that.


You can see from that picture above some of the temperatures expected (this according to the computer models, but Cody and I are both in pretty much basic agreement with the warm-up). They are looking nice - and all of this with an average high of 54 and low of 29. Quite the swings we have been getting lately; which aren't too unusual. It is for that reason that you will not usually hear me use the term "normal" when describing average temperatures. Fall gives us these averages due to the rapid swings up and down temperature-wise and then the average is what we talk about. If you get a low of 17 one night and a low of 41 the next, the average low for those two nights becomes 29. Just something to keep in mind next time you hear any of us at KDLT talking about average types of weather. Stay warm tonight!

~KDLT Meteorologist Aaron Shaffer

Cold Tonight

We are looking at an extremely cold night tonight because calm winds and clear skies are going to lead to a decoupling of the atmosphere. When the atmosphere de-couples, the surface winds go calm while the winds aloft are still moving at a fast pace. What that does, is it will actually seperate the surface from the rest of the atmosphere, allowing for the cold dense air to sink to the surface giving us very cold low temperatures. Now, the question remains, how long will the atmosphere de-couple. In this situation, just one extra hour of de-coupling can mean the difference of about 5 degrees. So we will see what happens tonight. Despite the complications of the forecast, teens for overnight lows are still a good bet.

KDLT Meteorologist Cody Matz

Winds Finally Dying Down

Winds are beginning to calm after an extremely windy day. Peak wind gusts were clocked anywhere from 55 to 65 mph. The good news is that things will be much calmer tomorrow. Unfortunately, its still going to be cool with highs some 15 degrees below average, staying in the 30's and 40's.

Warmer weather works its way in by Tuesday and we are looking at widespread 60's on Wednesday

KDLT Meteorologist Cody Matz

Windy!!!

It was a breezy and a very pleasant day with temperatures back above normal. Unfortuantely, tomorrow will be much cooler and extremely windy. Winds are expected to be sustatined between 25-45 mph with gusts possibly over 60 mph. High wind watches are in effect for Sunday across almost the entire state and wind advisories posted for much of the region.

Temperatures tomorrow will struggle to get into the 40's with morning highs expected then temperatures staying steady or falling through the afternoon.

The good news is that the cold blast will be fairly short lived as highs will climb back into the 50's on Tuesday and 60's as early as Thursday.

KDLT Meteorologist Cody Matz

Is The Rain Finally Gone?

We're watching as the last gasp of this pesky storm system moves away as I am typing this. Unfortunately we are seeing more rain with this last gasp. It'll warm up and clear up eventually, though, and that is the good news of the night. This is a radar image from about 6:18pm tonight, showing the line as it enters the Sioux Falls area:

The good news is that this is the last and westernmost edge of the system. There were even a few snowflakes seen in the Watertown area - but as Cody and I have talked about there is a nice warm-up on the way (for a day) that will at least temporarily move away all the snow & rainfall chances.

We'll keep this one short and close out with the good news - you can see the surface low (the L in the following picture) moving to the East over Iowa:
Have a great weekend! It'll be windy Saturday and even more windy Sunday, so be ready for that.

~KDLT Meteorologist Aaron Shaffer

Roller Coaster of Temperatures

We start the up and down swing of temps this weekend as warmer air will surge into the area on Saturday. But unfortunately the clipper system that we have been talking about over the last couple of days will push through Saturday night and will give us our first real taste of arctic air on Sunday and Monday. Here is the Acrtic air plunging out of Canada. Will be a quick cool down because temperatures will rebound back to near average by Tuesday and then even warmer weather expected after that.



KDLT Meteorologist Cody Matz

Warmer Temperatures Coming...

We've gone through some pretty chilly temperatures over the past few days... but good news is in the forecast, with some nice warming expected for a day on Saturday. After that we get slammed with some more chilly air (but drier air this time), but we can at least enjoy some 60ish degree type of weather for the 1st half of the weekend.

Part of how we know that will happen is by looking at temperatures at about 5000 feet (above us again. When you get a little sun and wind, it mixes everything up and those temperatures way up there become a good indicator about just how warm or cold things will be.


If this map actually pans out and the right types of mixing occur, we could end up with temperatures even a little more than the conservative forecasts near the low 60s we've been talking about on KDLT. If you look just a little farther north toward southern Canada you can see the cold arctic blast making its way to the South, but at least we are warm for a day.

~KDLT Meteorologist Aaron Shaffer

Rain Winding Down

Looks like the steady rain around the Sioux Falls metro is finaly coming to an end! Still expecting some scattered light showers throughout the day but not anticipating anywhere near the amounts we saw yesterday. The rainfall totals from here out should stay under a quarter of an inch. This storm has left its mark on the southeast though, with widespread areas of 1.50 to 3.00 inches of rain. Local areas saw even more then that; Orange City has had 3.56 inches. But, the heavy rain mainly stayed in the Southeast as most totals up in the Northeast were from a quarter to three quarters of an inch. And the West hardly saw anything at all with Pierre reporting just .13" from this storm.

Now our focus turns toward the weekend where it looks like we will have one mild day and another cool day. The mild day looks to be Saturday with 850mb temps very warm which should help us get into the 50's and 60's.

But unfortunately its not going to last long as a very fast moving Alberta Clipper will be making its way through Saturday night and dropping 850mb temperatures drastically to where our highs will be back in the low to mid 40's.
~KDLT Meteorologist Cody Matz

Record Rainfall Today!

We've seen a few new records set - and we'll probably update these at a later date, but here are some preliminary records...

Sioux Falls: Old record 0.70" set in 1906, new record 1.15" and counting (as of 9:30pm) at the airport. At our KDLT rain gauge we have picked up 1.37" as of now since about 8am this morning.
Huron: Old record 0.79" set in 1957, new record 1.22" and counting.
Mitchell: Old record 0.25" in 2002, new record 0.69" and counting.
Sisseton: Old record 0.27" in 2004, new record 0.54" and counting.

We may end up seeing more records, but we've also seen some pretty cold conditions. The little sliver of cold air we mentioned yesterday has slipped farther toward the Northeast even into the Brookings area and west-central Minnesota. This was a webcam shot courtesy of the South Dakota Department of Transportation in the Brookings area:


In that area of a narrow band with snow we've seen various reports ranging from about 0.5" to 1.5" of slushy and messy snow.

~KDLT Meteorologist Aaron Shaffer

Yikes!!

All I can suggest today would be to stay inside! I realize for most of us thats not entirely possible but just thought Id throw that out there. Its looking very very wet today with some heavy rain likely. You can check out how much rain we are expecting in the graphic below.

The heavy rain is being caused by the warm air advection ahead of the system thats off to our south. The picture below is an image from 7am this morning of the 850mb level or about 5000 feet above the surface. The red and blue lines on the map indicate temperature lines, the red are in degrees celsius above zero and the blue are in degrees celsius below zero. where you see the lines get really close together and the wind barbs are showing the winds going perpendicular to the temperature lines, thats warm air advection. The faster the winds, the stronger the warm air advection and the stronger the uplift to produce rainfall.

Now, you need a few more components to get rainfall of this magnitude, but that is the key component. Looks like most of the strong warm air advection will end this evening but expect some light showers to persist through at least tomorrow afternoon.

~KDLT Meteorologist Cody Matz

Nasty Weather - As Expected

Today has been an incredibly chilly-feeling day where the rain feels like liquid ice pellets. That is largely due to the fact that snow is actually the precipitation that originally falls from the sky that is melted as it hits the warmer air closer to the surface. It chills the air, though, as it falls. That effect causes some massive temperature drops you most likely have felt.

As far as snowfall is concerned, you can see a forecast map here from earlier this afternoon. We'll see if it pans out.

We're definitely seeing a lot of rain and a little snow chance as well. As we mentioned in the previous post we are looking closely at some chilly temperatures in the upper levels of the atmosphere to find the best snowfall potential. Check out this map:

You can see a very fine line that divides temperatures about a degree or two about freezing from temperatures that are a degree or so below freezing. That is what our KDLT weather team is closely monitoring.

We'll make sure we update you as necessary as we head through the next 24-48 hours. Stay warm!

Snow?

As Cody Matz, our morning meteorologist, mentioned in his post (below this one), we are looking at some pretty cold air making its way into the area. That is our entire weather team's main focus as far as the forecast - how much cold air and when will it arrive and start affecting our precipitation type. If things get as cold as they look like they could go - we might end up getting some of our first snowfall of the season - particularly of concern would be the area of south-central South Dakota stretching north toward Chamberlain. Look at this image below, which is temperatures of the air about 5,000 feet up or so.

Those darker shades of blue represent temperatures about 4-8 degrees below zero celsius, and just below freezing the freezing mark in farenheit temperatures. Either way - it will be cold! If you look at the area in eastern Nebraska you will notice a lot of circles. Those are lines of constant pressure known as "isobars" in the world of weather, and when they are aligned like that the system becomes "cutoff" from the main flow of the atmosphere. That allows this system to continue drawing in colder air and spewing rain and even some snow for a period of at least hours or up to days. Eventually another system latches onto the "cutoff low" and pulls it away.

That is important because of this image now, forecasted liquid water amounts:

Think of that image as "future radar" and you can see the coldest air coincides with higher rainfall amounts. Scary stuff. We'll keep you updated on the latest!

Cooler Temps are on the Way!

Wow, what a difference a day makes right? Yesterday was beautiful and today is going to be a lot cooler. The good news is that it will be sunny all day. So enjoy this while you can because unfortunately its not going to last long as temps are going to continue to tumble this week. A low pressure system will develop on the Lee side of the rockies (East side) from a system that is pushing into the Pacific Northwest. Strength of this system shows up on the visible satellite because of the cold fair weather cumulus behind the front, just off shore.

The low that will be affecting us will begin developing tonight over portions of the southern plains and then rapidly strengthen through the day Tuesday. This system will drop mid and upper level temperatures drastically and will allow cool temperatures to funnel their way down to the surface through evaporative cooling. May cool enough where some areas may see some mixed precipitation. Now, it doesnt look like a wide spread snow event at this point but things could definately change over the next 48 hours so we are keeping a close eye on it. But, even if we were to get the snow flying, the likelihood of seeing any accumulation is slim to none because of all the rain that would have already fallen, keeping the ground too wet, and because the ground temperature is just too warm to support snowpack this time of the year. But enjoy whats left of your day today because it will be turning much colder through the remainder of the week.

Foggy Start = Cooler Temps

I woke up this morning and was happy that there was fog since it was in the forecast, but that October sun angle did NOT help burn it off very quickly this morning at all, so thankfully the pheasant opener was at noon!This area of white, on the satellite image, I circled is the fog many in Sioux Falls saw this morning...

The reason we had a cooler day than forecast is because this fog didn't burn up as fast as I expected it to. The reason for that is because the low angle of the sun in October makes it harder for that fog to evaporate. There's also an inversion (kind of like a Tupperware lid that keeps food staying the same) that kept a low cloud deck around the Sioux Empire. So those low clouds kept the sun and warmer temps away.

By the afternoon hours you can see those level clouds disappeared from that same area. More fog is in the forecast for Sunday morning as we will have light winds, clearing skies and some low level moisture. Temperatures will still be in the 60s for Sunday before a cold front passes through mid-day bringing much cooler weather.

Pleasant for Pheasants

There's so much buzz in the air about the pheasant opener . . . and the weather's going to cooperate! Temperatures are going to be a good 5 to 10 degrees ABOVE average since we will finally see a return of the Southerly winds. Lately we've been 10 to 15 degrees BELOW average due to cloud cover, Northerly winds bringing down the cold Canadian air and some evaporative cooling from the rain we saw. This warm up will be a nice relief and it couldn't have come at a better time, we keep on missing out on the nice weekends! Keep those hunting dogs well rested and hydrated since the temps will be a bit warmer. Good luck!

Photo courtesy of www.stukels.com

Another Cold Night?

You can tell we are getting toward the point in the fall/winter season where we stop mentioning the potential for a frost or a freeze - and tonight might just be that point.



Look for the coldest night so far this year, with calm winds and clear skies, and the potential for our first hard freeze of the season. Temperatures should range from around the mid 20s toward the North and the West, to the upper 20s and low 30s toward the East.

We're not the only ones seeing the cold though - just look a little farther to the North and you can see some major cooling. This is a map of MOS, or Model Output Statistics, temperatures for the overnight hours into early Thursday:



Over by the North Dakota and Montana border, if the computers are right, we could be seeing temperatures bordering on the teens tonight!

Invisible Line

We're watching the tail end of what's known as an "elongated trough" making its way through the area. There is much drier air over us than there is just a few hundred miles to the South. The mixture of those two? Showers to the South and mostly just clouds toward the North.



Don't expect too much rain - maybe a tenth of an inch as the most you would see - but definitely some chilly temperatures. This system changed things in a hurry - after some nice sunshine earlier today we saw the clouds roll in from the South and temperatures dropped almost instantaneously. Make sure you bring a light wind-breaker if you are headed outside tomorrow - it'll be a little on the chilly and breezy side!



Update (9:06pm):
We're seeing some of the earlier showers moving farther to the East, as expected. As of now it looks like Brandon is seeing some light rain but around the Sioux Falls area we are seeing things start to taper off.

Cold Night Ahead

When we get clear skies and calm winds during the overnight hours, that allows a lot of heat to escape. Winds keep things "mixed" where warmer air from above is brought down to the surface and colder air brought up above - along with occasional warmer air being blown in. Either way, the end result is a freeze warning covering most of the area. If temperatures get below freezing for a significant amount of time we can see the end of the growing season for the area.


Those areas in the shaded blue area will see, potentially, their first "real" freeze of the season. Either way, you'll definitely want a coat for Tuesday! It will probably be our coldest morning of the new fall season.

First Post!

Hello everybody in the Sioux Empire. As we get things set up we'll start plugging away in this blog, but for now this will be our only post until that point.

We've been getting quite a bit of rain, as we expected, from yet another storm system making its way through the area. Last Monday we saw record rainfall of 2.17" in the Sioux Falls area... this week it should be a little better, but still wet.

This is our cold front moving through the area:


It'll keep raining through tomorrow, but then we should start to see things clear up as the cold front moves away. Typically behind a cold front something called "subsidence" occurs. Subsidence is when the air above us sinks - and sinking air typically will warm slightly and dry out. That is why we usually see sun fairly soon after a storm comes through.