I don't need to tell ANYONE it's been a below normal month as far as temperatures go. This is just one graph for Sioux Falls (though most of the state looks similar) that shows us where our actual temperatures wound up with respect to where they should be on their respective days. (Courtesy of the NWS in Sioux Falls - check out other cities near SF here or in central and northern SD check here)
The areas in green is where our temperatures SHOULD have been, areas in blue is the range of temperatures showing temperatures below normal getting as cold as the record cold temperature and areas in the red/pink is the range of temperatures up to the record high for that day. The navy blue bars show the low and high temperatures for the day, the top of the bar being the actual high, the bottom of the bar being the actual low. You can definitely see that nearly all of our temperatures stayed in the lower half of the green range - keeping us below average. There were only 2 days where temperatures were above average and 2 days where we hit average.
Good news is on the way if you don't like those cooler temperatures. As we start November, we'll start seeing those warmer than normal temperatures creep back into the forecast. Especially tomorrow - temperatures in the 60s!
And if you look at the 3 month temperature outlook from the climate prediction center... we'll keep that above normal trend around all the way through January! Of course if you're a big snow fan - you'll have to wait a bit longer for any snow we see to stick because this winter won't be as cold, so snow will melt a lot faster in the beginning of the winter season.
Enjoy the warmer temperatures for now though!
~KDLT Meteorologist Jesse Ritka
I hope everyone will enjoy the nicer weather and the sunshine. I love the rain and snow but it will definitely be nice to see the sun for a few days.
There is good news in the forecast after today, much drier weather is in the forecast. And that includes Halloween - so that's Boo! number 2. We'll see high pressure move in to our region and high pressure is an area of more stable air, which won't allow for showers to enter the forecast for Halloween. High temperatures will still be on the cool side - in the mid to upper 40s but we'll be dry. Here's a look at your trick or treat forecast:
So that is just one of many reasons why we are not getting the snow to fall.
We've got winter storm warnings, winter weather watches and winter weather advisories already in effect. (I put the current radar scan on top of the warning map in a semi-transparent layer so you can tell where the system is currently)
Keep in mind that this is just one model and that they usually overdue the snowfall. But it just goes to show that there is the possibility of quite a bit of snow.
It does look like western South Dakota will see the brunt of this storm but it will likely be in the form of snow. Recent models are showing that our area will stay primarily rain but areas west river could see significant snow accumulation on Thursday into Friday.
Areas of western South Dakota are bulls eyed to receive quite a bit of snow. This same storm is looking to dump 1 to 2 feet of snow near the Denver area.
So if you are planning a trip out of South Dakota to go westward through the end of the week, you may want to think again.
According to several models like the one you see above, winds will likely be sustained at or above 15 mph throughout the afternoon across the east. Winds could gust up to 40 mph in some areas. Then, our dry days will come to an end for some of us on Wednesday as more moisture, clouds, and rainfall will moving into the state. Enjoy the sunshine!!!
That would be about 7pm tomorrow night. Just after sunset - so hopefully we can speed up the process a little bit more between now & then!
Heading overnight and into tomorrow, most of the rain shifts to the Southeast - so if you are reading this and live in Mobridge or Pierre it is likely you will just see some lingering clouds out there. Toward Yankton and the rest of southeastern South Dakota, and into NW Iowa and SW Minnesota, you will see a different picture: additional rain. See this video below, where we drew the "invisible line" of the day to show where showers could possibly go. The thing to keep in mind is that if you live immediately to the North of that line you could end up with some rain as well:
More rain is off to our south so expect it to be a very wet day.
Break out the umbrella again because it looks like a wet couple of days ahead.
We highlighted the low pressure system centered just to the west of South Dakota. You can see we'll be seeing some light showers moving through - but the bulk of the rain takes a while to build in.
As of now, while we are looking for some lingering patches of rain during the day Tuesday, and again during the day on Wednesday, most of the rain for eastern South Dakota into SW Minnesota and NW Iowa will hold off until Tuesday evening into the overnight hours.
See those 60s and 70s to the West? They'll be headed at least close to us. Don't get too excited about these temperatures just yet - because right now they seem very optimistic. Upper 50s to lower 60s in our viewing area do seem likely, however. That will be a good change from what we've seen lately!
Sunday Afternoon 850mb Temperatures (Celsius):
So just get through the next couple of days and there will be a nice reward for you provided by mother nature for the weekend.
Look at that image above. It is a computer model forecast for Sunday's highs. Look at those 60s on the map in yellow! Look at how close those 70s in the light orange-yellow color get to the rest of us! Could be a warm-up in our future...
Notice that it looks like rain will encompass much of the south while snow may be the predominant precipitation type across the north. So it doesn't look like "the big" storm is coming, (in terms of snow) it still looks like a possibility for some of us.
These winds will make Saturday feel that much colder and that is something we don't need as temperatures are going to be running nearly 30 degrees below average. The snow should accumulate in some areas tonight into Saturday morning with the best chances across the southeast. Here are the predictions for total snowfall from the National Weather Service. 
Roads should be ok for the most part because the ground temperature is just too warm for snow to accumulate on the roads. But be careful anyway tonight because the roads will still be wet and slick.
Friday Afternoon:
Saturday Afternoon:
Notice the dramatic shift in winds and cold air plunging in on Friday and Saturday. Accompanying that cold air could even be a little bit of snow as Aaron talked about yesterday. The chances for some snow showers are looking better and better every minute, especially for the southeast. Below shows the probability of seeing at least 1 inch of snow from 1am-1pm on Saturday. 
Many areas of the southeast have upwards of a 40 percent chance. So it looks like the first flakes of the season will be flying for some of us this weekend. Stay warm!!
850mb Temperatures Saturday Afternoon
850mb Temperatures Sunday Afternoon:
Even the Climate Prediction Center agrees. They have encircled an area that they are expecting temperatures to be well below average from the 8th to the 12th.
Enjoy the brief warm up tomorrow....... while it lasts!!